Hi mad

Another interesting weekend of NFL. I need Green Bay to cover to get a split for the weekend as again my service went for away dogs and STL and MIN bit the dust although I did have San Diego. Nothing like waking up at 3.30 am to see your bet down 14 0. If I could survive the first 2 minutes of some of these games I would be ok. Anyway go the Pack.

Still early days but the San Diego running game must impress as they ran straight through defensive lines again this week, with New England being the victim. Running a line through their matches I think Denver and the NY Giants must also be good teams.

Week 4 stats wrap

Buffalo - NO - difficult to judge where the Saints are at, but they looked happier this week against a very bad Buffalo team. Buffalo have no offense especially passing (67 yds). They replaced their qb to try and get something going to no avail. NO won with good ball control and the help of 2 t/o's. NO pass defense looked good.

Detroit - TB Despite the closeness of the score, the Bucs continue to impress. Detroit closed down the running game but TB took to the air with success. What kept the Lions in the game was the 4-1 t/o's. It takes a good team to overcome 3 interceptions. The Lions played well defensively but were ordinary on offense. The Bucs defense won the game.

Sea - Wash - stats were as even as the o/t scoreline. This was the Redskins worse defensive game which I think just shows how good the Seattle offense is. Seattle passed well and have only 1 t/o in the last 3 games.

STL - NYG. I think the Giants are a good team and the loss to SD last week shows how good SD is. STL had 5 t/o, no rushing (42 yds) and put up big passing numbers (434 yds) in desperation mode. NY rushed for 164 yards.

Hou-Cinci The Bengals came down to earth getting only1 turnover. Then won against a very poor Houston team and continued to look good on offense. Houston's offensive line aren't geting the job done allowing 7 sacks and only getting 128 yds through the air.

SD-NE Vey impressive offensive figures for the Chargers including 183 yds rushing against a pretty good NE defense. NE have lots of injuries and losing 2 to's to none didn't help. NE are losing the t/o battle each week and still haven't rushed for more than 80 yds in any game this year.

Denver-Jax . Denver 188 yds rushing - Jax 12 yds rushing plus 4 t/o's favouring Denver sums it up. Denver had the ball for most of the game.

Indy-tenn - stats pretty close despite the score (31-10) Indy has 4 wins but only ordinary stats on both sides of the ball. They are winning on mistake free football (0 sacks and only 2 T/o's this year) and a great red zone defense. The Titans have a very inexperienced team whose numbers aren't that bad. As the season progress, they will improve and can't be taken for granted.

NYJ -Balt The Jets have no qb and no offense. 7 first downs and 28 yds rushing. Baltimore were lucky they caught NY in this mode. Baltimore won with +2 to's but showed little on offense. Not impresive at all.

MIN-ATL. Atlanta rushed for 285 yds and sacked Minnesota 9 times. Atlanta has passing problems with Vick being hurt again. The Vikings are very bad and I think their win last week against New Orleans was an anomaly. They can't run and can't defend the rush. Culpepper has been sacked 16 times in 2 games. No line = no wins.

Dallas - Oakland. Even stats with the opening 85 yd pass to Moss being the difference. Dallas have now got 5 of 7 games at home and in a tough division could surprise a few teams.

Phil-KC KC shut down the Eagles rushing game (28 yds)and Mcnabb and Owens went to the air to win in a big comeback. Phil passing stats are very impressive. KC continues to run wll (144 yds). Their run defense returned to normal which indicates how good Denver's rushing is. lost the t/o battle 2-4 in a game they should have won.

Ari-SF How bad is SF. Given a 14-0 lead on 2 fumbles they then proceeded to waste 55 minutes in a very poor effort. While their defense tried hard, they got worn down as they had a minus 33 field possession which is a very big difference. Arizona won but still can't score td's. The 49ers made them look good although they passed very well (368 yds). However against a good offense team, their defense won't hold up.

Can not believe this crap. For about the 8th game in a row, an opening fumble leads to a TD and I'm f**ked again.

Yep, i know the feeling. I had Green Bay plus the points to win. Thought the same as you after the first half, third quarter even - wasn't much better. Great comeback though.

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Hey Karla ANd MAd, Hope all is well leading into Week 5. Karla, grreat call on the SF over and the 49'ers are terrible. ( I hate to see my once proud team reduced to the team I was used to seeing as a kid in the 70's) talk about cycles!

Thanks for the PATS on the back Mad, but the one theory I am proudest of this year is the scheduling snafu with NE. In combination with injuries and loss of assistant coaches, the lines scream to play against NE right now. Things may change in mid november on, but I'm continuing to play against them right now and i will start to play against NO as well. THe Saints can't continue to function normally with all the distractions they are facing. It will catch up. The Eagles were pretty gustsy in their comeback at KC and this shows how bad they may really want this season. We'll see. Oakland seems to be back to a competitive level, at least where the line is concerned.

Hey Toga and Karla,

Geez, some tough games this week - to pick that is. All these lines hovering around the 3 point mark. One minute i'm leaning this way the other i've convinced myself to go the other. It is in situations like these that i find that it is better to keep my money in my pocket... LOL

ATC, any chance you would post your rankings, see if they can help.

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Very interesting article in Thursday's Daily Racing Form( DRF.COM) concerning teams coming off bye weeks. Last week all four teams coming off byes (Hou, Det, Wash, and Balt) covered the spread. This weeks plays would be MIAMI +3 at buffalo and PITTSBURGH +3 at san diego. Cleveland and Chicago are playng each other so they cancel each other out.

Also, the UNDER is 33-26-1 (56%) so far for the NFL season. IND, CINN, and TB are all 4-0 on their games going under. I have always felt that the under is the better value anyway, due to the linemaker's making the over slightly higher than it should be due to the public's lean towards playing the over.

Home teams are 32-26-1 ATS (55%)

HOME DOGS are 9-6 ATS (60%)
69%
Double digit underdogs are 2-1 ATS (66%)

Underdogs of 7 or more points are 9-4 (69%)
" " " " " " 7 1/2 or more points are 4-1 (80%)**

Hi guys


Don't you just love October. Weather impoves, baseball all day every day, the hockey starts and NFL hits full gear. Went 2-0 here to improbe to 5-7 but I must say I was lucky with SF doing everything in its power to make Arizona look good to get the over and GB gettng the back door cover as Carolina went into sleep mode. Alls well that ends well.

The Fox game is Tampa Bay v NY Jets at 3 am.

After last week you might wonder if some teams like Buffalo, the Jets, Jax, GB, SF and Houston should bother showing up. But they are all returning home and as we know bad looking teams returning home suddenly look like world beaters. The lines are all reflecting this with 11 of 14 being on a field goal to seperate them.

Thanks for the stats Saratoga. Total Points in the NFL usually average around 42.5 and they are down to 40 this year.

My picks are

Carolina v Arizona under 43.5. Arizona showed us last week that they still can't score td's even if they are given the ball for the whole game. Facing a much tougher defense here in Carolina I don't expect them to get too many 7 pointers again. Carolina also doesn't have a great offense and the stats show that Arizona defense is about the same as Carolina's. Two poor offenses against 2 average to good defenses looks like field goals will be the order of the day which should lead to a score about 4-6 points beneath the line.

Jacksonville -2.5 bt Cinci. The Bengals are +15 on the t/o table and have beaten teams that are a combined 3-11. Recieving all the breaks and only beating poor teams makes the Bengals look pretty good. The JAX are 2-2 and have played much harder opposition (10-6 combined). Cinci have been getting it done through the air and I expect that to stop on Sunday as the Jaguars are #2 in pass defense on my stats. Time for Cinci to be unlucky with the turnovers and facing a real good defense leads me to think the Jag's will win a low scoring contest by 3 or 6.

Seattle +3 bt STL. Seattle are my #1 offensive team and playing a poor defensive team in the Rams. The Seahawks should be able to run well and then set up the long passes. Stl passes ok but their rushing is poor. Seattle has a good pass defense and should hold St Loius at bay. It could be a high scoring game but I think Seattle has too many guns for the Rams.

Good luck to you all

Hi Guys and Gals,

Been busy this week so i haven't done much. Thinking along the lines of Miami, Tennessee, Broncos and the Steelers this week. All underdogs with points, except the Broncos of course. I tempted to take the Pats as Vick is injured.

Anyways take care and good luck to all our teams.

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Det -1

Chi +2-

Jax(on Karla's advice, but no pressure, lass! LOL)

Close call on Jax, pheew!
Need the Steelers to get up for a winning weekend.
Redskins maybe not as bad as i once thought - perhaps, huge numbers for them this weekend but don't tell saratoga i said that though. Broncos D must have been clinging on for their lives.

Anyway, i hope you guys and gals did OK. Only so-so pour moi, again. Oh well haven't lost much nor won much so can't really complain. Go Steelers!

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I like Bing Lee.