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#81
16th October 2019, 11:38 PM
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Wolfe and Top Of The Range finish 1-2 in the Coongy Cup. Wolfe consequently wins his way into the Caulfield Cup this weekend - where he's 7 rating points lower than anyone else. His winnings today also look to have bumped him up to around 53rd in the Order; Top Of The Range may have crept into 54th.
Racing this Saturday:
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#82
17th October 2019, 05:26 AM
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I am surprised at how low the current ranking is for a lot of those Caulfield cup runners. I guess they are avoiding any additional penalty.
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#83
17th October 2019, 11:59 PM
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 Constantinople
3yo B Colt
Galileo (IRE) - One Moment In Time (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
8s: 2-4-1
The two past winners of the Melbourne Cup have been Northern Hemisphere 4 years olds. Here to make it three in a row is Constantinople. Making it slightly tougher is a re-appraisal made by the handicapper. Following a review after last year's running, the benchmark for horses of this type was increased by one kilogram. Rekindling went into the 2017 Cup with a 116 BHA Performance Rating in his race prior. He carried 51.5kg. Cross Counter went into the 2018 Cup with a 114 BHA Performance Rating. He carried 50kg. Constantinople's last race was awarded a 110 rating and he will carry 52.5kg. Making a direct comparison to the two prior victors, their rating going into the race and what they actually carried, he should be handicapped 4-4.5kg less than he is. Per the handicapper, that equates to around 8-9 lengths over 3200m. That far back over the last two years would have seen him in 6th-9th position. Constantinople is a growing horse early in his career though so it's possible that he will continue to improve over his next couple of races. It may be useful to look at the trajectory of those who continued to compete in Europe while he was in quarantine. His final race was the Great Voltigeur Stakes a Group 2 for 3 year olds, held over 2400m (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TppLdv5FaGU). He finished a 1.75L second to Logician but the race wasn't rated terribly highly. The official British handicapper awarded a 115 to the winner: the second lowest figure to take out the race this century. More encouragingly, Logician would continue his undefeated series in his next race - the St Leger Stakes - and in track record time, to earn a 117 Rating. There's a little more to it than though... Handicapping is an art and the 117 was come to by looking at the ratings of the five previous winners. 117 was in the middle of that range: 114 to 120. While there is some argument that Logician should get the higher number (he broke the record after all) looking at his competitors, the distance they finished behind and the rating they had coming into the race, he could have been awarded as little as 111. The third placegetter Nayef Road was particularly well exposed, having his 14th career start. He had a steady series of 4 races rating between 103 and 105 mid-campaign. The last of these was in beating Constantinople in the Gordon Stakes: Constantinople's second-to-last UK race. Nayef Road then jumped up to a 108 rating in his next, by virtue of his competitiors, in finishing a 13 lengths last. So it's safe to say I have some doubts regarding his overseas form. He's yet to race further than 2400m but his profiles appear he'll be up to the task. His Dosage Profile is (5-6-25-12-0) with DI of 0.96 and CD of 0.08, looking pretty ideal for 3200m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (2-7-2-11-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 18, Conduit Index 0.48, and Triads (11-20-20). Perhaps lacking in some top-end speed there but again, no concerns about making the distance. There's every chance he's improved since coming to Australia and it's good that we'll get the opportunity to see if that's the case in the Caulfield Cup. With the information at hand though, I'm inclined to believe he finishes in the lower half of the Top 10.
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#84
18th October 2019, 08:58 AM
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I was looking through to race/market earlier this week as I wanted to do some futures multi's for a bit of fun if they make it through to Cup day. Really the only runners standing out for me at the moment are Ispolini, Master of Reality, Raymond Tusk and Southern France. It's hard to get too excited about most others at the moment. I think a few runners have been overbet in the leadup such as surprise baby, constantinople and finche - I think these three will find it much harder cup day.
Going by the writeups you've completed so far it would appear you somewhat agree that there aren't many/any standouts at the moment - is it possible this year could be another boilover?
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#85
18th October 2019, 05:15 PM
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Quote:
Doubt it. This happens every year. The only reason there was a boilover a few years ago was due to a major jockey mistake (arrogance) which took out more than half the field. https://www.racing.com/videos/2019-...5-melbourne-cup Fast forward to 3 mins and watch all the runners who were going to run on be taken out. I count 13 horses impacted and most were in the top chances. I agree its just ad luck and that riding at the back of the pack causes bad luck to have a higher impact but it was still the action which caused the boilover. I still think the winner will come this year in the top chances in the market.
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#86
18th October 2019, 05:51 PM
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Boilover probably wasn't the right word, but I can picture the winner being in the $15 - $31 range this year for some reason. I just don't really like the current favourites that much and I can almost guarantee whatever wins the caulfield cup, if its a melb cup runner it will come in heavily but not win the melb cup.
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#87
18th October 2019, 08:21 PM
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Quote:
Yeah Within $31 is a contender as far as I am concerned. A winner at that price is within my expectations.
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#88
19th October 2019, 11:18 PM
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Yeah, what UB said. No standouts just means more candidates in the $11-$31 range.
Here's todays results from Cup nominees:
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#89
20th October 2019, 07:12 AM
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The 3L rule will cut out a lot of those horses from the cup selection system.
Will be interesting to see the new table when you get time.
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#90
20th October 2019, 05:58 PM
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Quote:
As a sneak peak: unless their odds change in the meantime, joining Ispolini, Finche and Surprise Baby on max points will be Constantinople, Mustajeer and Vow and Declare.
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