The first round of both Auckland and Sydney have provided plenty of upsets. Sydney lived up to its historical past as the 2nd worst venue for seeds in round 1 by losing 4 of 7. Round 2 for both Auckland & Sydney are average with 70% of seeds winning.

I am on the following today:
Blake bt Moya $1.62 - 1 unit
Davydenko bt Calleri $1.36 - 1 unit

These plays are against Moya and Calleri in age situations that are 215-81 5% and 171-68 20%.

Niemenen bt Goldstein -$1.28 - .5 unit
This play is against Goldstein and qualifies in a 171-68 20% age situation.

Ferrer bt Sluiter - $1.55 - .5 unit
Wawrinka bt A. Martin $1.57 .5 unit
These plays are against Sluiter and Martin in age/form decline situation which is 62-15 29%.

Hewitt bt Melzer - $1.22 - 1.5 units
Hewitt qualifies in a seeded player situation that is 391-67 8% and gets a bonus being seed 1 which qualifies him in a 204-33 11% situation. I haven't placed this as screwy huey is once again having stomach problems. I lost heaps on him in the past with his various ailments and am reluctant to send good money after bad. I will watch the news reports and if I do bet it will be with a place like Centrebet which refunds if the match doesn't get to a played out result.

See, most of us are on similiar plays so hope were all smiling at the end of the day.

Karla

Easy 6-4 6-3 for Ferrer. Have no idea why he was 1.58, is Sluiter that much better the Luzzi he played yesterday. Can't complain! Would have gone bigger then 2 units if i hadn't been 0-2 for the week. That's 1-2 now lets hope Rochus and Murray make it 3-2

Moya withdraws from Sydney International

Bet Void

That's the second time in two days

James Blake over Arnaud Clement @ $1.364

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Match Writeup

Good luck lads
Betsy

2 out of 3. Not bad just need to learn where to put my money as i always seem to put too much on the losers.

Im on Blake too Betsy

Hi everyone

A good day yesterday with all 5 selections getting up. I finally went with Hewitt as the tempreture dropped to a nice 25, they showed Huey on TV and the commentator said he looked fine and his price started to drop at Betfair.

That's one of the problems with presenting a system as sometimes I have to leave it to the last moment.

Betsy gave real good advice about not backing anything under $1.25. I agree. Because I follow a system where the value is in the system not in individual matches I do play the shorties but if you are a value punter, go with Betsy's advice.

Hewitt bt Seppi - $1.15. 2.5 units
Seppi got beat in q/f last week to a simialar player in Malisse 6-0 6-1 and I hope for this to be the case again. Hewitt qualifies as a database (DB) selection which is 222-54 (7.5%) and a subset which is 153-25 (10.3)%. He also quallifies in a situation based on seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%) and a subset which is 204-33 (11%). Seppi qualifis in a play against him based on his upset win against Blake and then bad effort against Malisse which is 66-3 (17.7%). A bad value bet but too many situations for me to ignore.

Blake bt Clement. $1.32 1.5 units
I'm on the Blake bandwagon as a DB bet. Blake also qualifies in the seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%).

couple more in a minute

congratulations of 5/5 thats great. youve convinced me on hewitt. he is short but could be shorter he is 1.18 for me

..........continued

Sorry the missus wanted to read e-mails.

I don't think Blake's match will be that easy as Clement will always fight.

The next 2 selections are from my "dogs" situations. I didn't present these last year but will go ahead this year. They don't have a very high strike rate but because of the value produce a profit.

In Auckland the #1 and 2 seeds don't reach the final that often and this situation plays on that happening again. Where the DB percievs a fairly even situation on 2 seeds in q/f then go for an upset. The situation is 57-32 since January 2003 for a nice ROI of 19%.


O Rochus bt Ferrer $2.05 .5 unit. I have Ollie a 57% chance so their is a bit of value to go with the situation. He should be motivated to get to final again here.

M Ancic bt Gonzalez $2.38 .5 unit. On most hardcourts the line would be the other way around but in Auckland the south american clay men seem to have the advantage. I have these 2 dead even and seek comfort that Ancic has beaten Gonzo on clay. However Ancic will have to be in rythmn on serve and Gonzo will have to miss a lot of attempted winners. The price of Gonzalez is coming in so I haven't placed a bet yet hoping the price will go out a bit more for Mario.

There is a situation on Davydenko but I'll have to wait to see what the early game produces. In Sydney, the rain is clearing and should be a nice day with a top of 27.


good luck with your plays

Karla

2 for me tonight

Hewitt to beat Seppi 1.18
Blake to beat Clement 1.33

Hoping to regain a bit on 2 matches that look certain winners, espeically Hewitt.

Blake wins in three sets, 3-6 6-1 6-4