Just fiddling around with my database and came up with this....

Consistency whether good or bad is worth looking at!

RULES
SMABP Metro Tracks
Must have run the same placing at it's last 4 starts with no spell or break in between.

Form 1111
Bets: 201
Winners:50
S/R: 24.88%
Profit: -$2.00
POT: -1.00%

Form 2222
Bets: 58
Winners:12
S/R: 20.69%
Profit: $33.10
POT: 57.07%

Form 3333
Bets: 33
Winners:6
S/R: 18.18%
Profit: -$3.00
POT: -9.09%

Form 4444
Bets: 14
Winners:3
S/R: 21.43%
Profit: $7.90
POT: 56.43%

Form 0000
Bets: 93
Winners:6
S/R: 6.45%
Profit: $108.60
POT: 116.99%

TOTAL -

Bets: 399
Winners:77
S/R: 19.30%
Profit: $144.60
POT: 36.24%

Just something to consider.

Fascinating figures Chrome Prince, and as you indicate the real surprise is 0-0-0-0. But six winners in 93 bets means a long time between drinks. Over how many database races are we talking? A while ago I played around with triple winners 1-1-1 with no good results. Now I see why. Thanks for posting useful stuff.

Hermes

Hermes,

It's approximately 3 1/2 years of metro races or close to 15,000 races.

While the bets are slim, it's because the contenders are few and far between.

Incidentally, of the 0000 form horses, none subsequently won at their next start after winning.

I'm not suggesting anyone put cash on this, more for interest sake.

Hey Chrome...if it is not to much trouble could you check this form figures

110
119
118

Hi Shaun,

I have input the actual formline of a horse as text rather than number, so I can search for an "x" or spell, which means until I finish of the number part of the database I can only search for 4 start form rather than last three starts, so here is what you requested but with this formline....

Form 1110
Bets: 46
Winners: 5
S/R: 10.87%
P/L: -$21.60
POT: -46.96%

Form 1119
Bets: 14
Winners: 0
S/R: 0.00%
P/L: -$14.00
POT: -100.00%

Form 1118
Bets: 28
Winners: 6
S/R: 21.43%
P/L: -$7.10
POT: -25.36%

Or horses that have had only 3 starts....

Form 110
Bets: 12
Winners: 2
S/R: 16.67%
P/L: -$8.80
POT: -73.33%

Form 119
Bets: 4
Winners: 1
S/R: 25.00%
P/L: $17.60
POT: 440.00% - WOW!

Form 118
Bets: 4
Winners: 0
S/R: 0.00%
P/L: -$4.00
POT: -100.00%

Sorry I couldn't do it properly, but I have a feeling it wouldn't be too flash including the other ones anyway. Perhaps someone else can oblige with full results?

Just as a footnote: There are very few selections, and a horse going from 110 or 119 could be that it's a breakdown or injury and doesn't race again, so that would distort the results.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-09 16:07 ]

Thanks mate np....as for the 4th run it does not really matter as long as they had 2 wins then out of the placeings a long way...my thinking on this and i have had a few good wins is that something happend on that bad run...maybe a bad check or something but nothing to resaly hurt the horse maybe it was way out of class....i have found when this type of form line appears and the horse is in the first half of the field in terms of weights that it can run a good race at big odds

Hi Shaun!
If I may butt in. I have actually ran yur idea over 4 years of results. About 63000 races. I went further and included 116,115, 220 etc upto 660-661/ Here are the results. But I would not take it for gospel because despite the number of races I looked at, the form patterns being so unique there are not a lot of races where they apply.
first column = form pattern
sec = num of races where the pattern applies
third = num of wins
fourth = $return
fifth = num of places
sixth = $return on place
Form Num Win $Ret Plc $Ret
110 284 32 170.0 92 224.90
119 125 16 115.5 49 123.79
118 157 13 79.9 44 103.00
117 167 22 216.6 58 184.29
116 268 38 299.4 93 228.80
115 281 40 227.5 101 244.10
114 334 44 190.1 122 271.49
113 445 84 368.2 223 408.59
112 596 118 522.4 308 538.09
111 792 235 931.5 440 784.40
220 229 22 145.8 69 178.00
229 84 6 32.9 30 64.60
228 147 23 152.0 51 124.39
227 212 27 181.4 74 161.99
226 224 30 158.9 95 204.29
225 298 45 227.2 125 258.29
224 393 75 338.7 160 297.69
223 472 85 408.2 260 480.10
222 625 120 527.5 341 613.29
221 751 171 815.3 349 663.19
330 221 21 176.5 62 179.69
339 114 9 75.0 35 96.90
338 144 10 80.5 44 112.49
337 156 14 84.1 48 121.60
336 189 17 140.5 66 157.50
335 247 28 188.5 81 227.79
334 315 41 263.4 111 259.69
333 347 44 230.5 167 379.20
332 438 62 314.3 209 418.09
331 464 102 569.5 214 445.10
440 180 10 117.0 51 223.30
444 236 30 184.9 88 214.10
448 129 8 81.5 41 115.10
447 146 15 128.4 44 126.50
446 157 12 70.4 43 150.90
445 205 24 242.3 58 149.50
443 287 35 221.8 113 253.60
442 331 40 199.2 154 314.79
441 326 59 340.1 128 282.49
550 142 6 80.6 25 89.60
559 94 6 92.3 20 67.90
558 103 10 129.2 29 111.30
557 109 9 112.4 28 87.20
556 156 12 168.6 44 151.70
555 187 12 94.5 47 137.99
554 223 20 170.0 67 172.00
553 184 20 190.5 60 163.69
552 237 34 228.2 105 254.20
551 222 40 291.8 79 186.00
660 165 11 82.9 24 89.50
669 70 6 140.9 17 68.10
668 93 13 179.8 33 128.80
667 107 8 67.5 22 87.50
666 122 12 126.4 41 176.60
665 152 12 124.9 42 155.70
664 174 13 96.3 51 146.80
663 186 22 138.7 89 228.19
662 151 20 183.6 58 135.19
661 149 25 205.9 53 139.49

Chrome,

You should know that in horse racing there is no consistency except winning and loosing streaks as probability laws dictate. Only variants and tangents [some shown here] throw up the odd exceptions.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-29 20:56 ]