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  #1  
Old 25th April 2011, 02:25 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Default Malcolm Knowles - Consistency book

Is the data in this book directed at only those horses with 20 or more starts ?

It's a good good read .... but I do have a couple of issues with it, which I'll raise a little later.
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  #2  
Old 25th April 2011, 02:47 PM
Pauls123 Pauls123 is offline
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that's those little pocket size books..?,.....I've got a few of them laying around somewhere, read them years ago,

Paul
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Old 25th April 2011, 03:57 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Yup, there the ones. Full of typos, grammar mistakes etc, etc .... but a good read BTW.
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Old 27th April 2011, 08:42 PM
gunny72 gunny72 is offline
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Default Knowles consistency

I have studied these books in detail, particularly the consistency one as I found this to be the only one that is relevant. Also, I had been using place percent reasonably successfully for several years before this book came out.

I simply backed the two longest priced horses from the top three place percent rankings and regularly obtained brilliant results. I have found his percentages on place percent rankings have stood up for about 20 years and still do but, and not surprisingly, his stated and my profit on turnover results have deteriorated significantly over recent years. Whereas $50 to $80 divvies once were common, now this range seems to be $10 to $30, and this is not enough for my approach.

I believe that he meant there had to be 20 starts and I took this into consideration initially and missed out on many good winners so I forget about the minimum 20 starts and it made no difference.

The suggested filtering ideas in the book did not work for me. I found the best filter to be price.

The thrust of his consistency book though is to provide an improved method of adjusting DS ratings for consistency and is probably this is a good use.

Gunny72
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Old 27th April 2011, 09:52 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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The Win SR rank and the Place SR rank are even when the win and 2nd are added. The whole book ispremised on the outstanding Place SR ranking, and fair enough given the stats put forward, but the alarm bells ring when the 2nd place is taken into account.

No mention of how many races has been analysed.

And the analysis seesm only to take into account 20 starts or more.

A good read though, but further proof about how potentially MISLEADING STATS can be.
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  #6  
Old 27th April 2011, 09:54 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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The DUAL winners and the LS winner confirms much commentary on here, and the stupidity of the public is also mentioned.

A good read ..... take nothing for granted unless you are quite happy to donate your pay to the TAB.
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