14th June 2011, 02:10 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Raven
If we could all lay at Tote prices we'd make a fortune. But I'm pretty sure $2 shots on betfair don't win 42% of the time, remember a $2 shot on BF would be odds-on on the totes. Not saying you won't find an edge in your favour either, but expect a wild ride.
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Raven
Hi
I concede that my data to date is via the tote. If a $2 Betfair horse is odds on at the tote the SR should be even higher. A $1.90 tote fav wins 50% of the time, a $1.80 tote fav wins 52% of the time and $1.70 fav 50%. Thus the lay return would be less (maybe the rurmored 20%). It is then a question of assertaining what is the true difference between the tote and Betfair.
I expect a wild ride as we only have a strike rate of between 16 and 30% which one can expect up to 40 outs.
This morning I looked at adding the 4th and 5th fav which should compensate the lower return on betfair and seems to soften the wild ride.
I finally think that my bot is set now (a few false starts this morning but cruising now) I have transferred sufficient funds into my account and then have complete faith in my calcs. If I don't some light then I'll cut my losses.
Beton
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