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  #31  
Old 6th May 2017, 10:35 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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The Kentucky Derby is back this weekend and with it come another set of predictions from UNU via artificial swarm intelligence. You can read all about it here: http://unu.ai/derby-2017/

Different this year:
  • the swarm comprises actual experts, rather than self-identified enthusiasts, so it will be interesting to see if it performs just as well (though apparently it's a better quality field this year, so it may be difficult to tell)
  • they use different metrics to show how confident the swarm is in their predictions
  • they partnered with a betting agency which offered a syndicate to the public: which sold out before the swarm had even met to make their selections

The selections were subsequently published and are (in order): Classic Empire, McCracken, Irish War Cry, and Always Dreaming. They do caution that it's super competitive this year and there are up to 10 horses with at least some chance of being in the finish.

To get a recap of the whole shebang from a horseracing perspective, this is probably the best of the articles linked from the blog: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/129746-2/

Of particular interest is the following line: "Unanimous A.I. is in the process of working out an agreement with Tabcorp, which operates the betting for Australian racing, to post “swarm” selections made by their expert handicappers and to let conventional customers form their own swarm groups."
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  #32  
Old 6th May 2017, 11:00 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Of particular interest is the following line: "Unanimous A.I. is in the process of working out an agreement with Tabcorp, which operates the betting for Australian racing, to post “swarm” selections made by their expert handicappers and to let conventional customers form their own swarm groups."


Very interesting. Thanks for the post.
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  #33  
Old 3rd June 2017, 01:49 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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walkermac,

While this is finance focused it has some great material which can be applied to horse racing.

https://www.quantopian.com/lectures

Anyone who is a systems follower should watch/read every lecture from 1 - 18. From then on it is more finance focused although a few are scattered through there like Lecture 27 which focuses on overfitting data.

I recommend the lectures to anyone also interested in trading/finance.
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  #34  
Old 10th December 2017, 05:31 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Here's a link to a study on swarm intelligence using the UNU tool: https://goo.gl/6FYoAB.

Swarms of online participants (30-35) were able to pick the difference between genuine and forced smiles 15% better than the average individual. They've done a lot of prediction testing in the past, but this is the first time they've tested social intelligence.

"Research into human swarms has been inspired by the
intelligence of natural swarms, which serve as the basis for
most swarming algorithms. The present research was modeled
after the decision-making in honeybee swarms, as it’s been
observed to be remarkably similar to decision-making in
neurological brains. Both employ large populations of
simple excitable units (i.e., bees and neurons) that work in
parallel to integrate noisy evidence, weigh competing
alternatives, and converge on decisions in synchrony. In both,
outcomes are arrived at through a real-time competition among
sub-populations of excitable units. When one sub-population
exceeds a threshold level of support, the corresponding
alternative is chosen. In honeybees, this enables optimal
decisions over 80% of the time. It is this
amplification of intelligence that Artificial Swarm Intelligence
aims to enable among distributed networked humans".
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