31st March 2011, 08:03 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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The best chance in the race could be 100 / 1
I recall many years ago going out to Sandown with the objective of having one bet, that being backing a longshot that was given to us by a form guru. It’s so long ago that the form relied upon were the shots of the field at various stages during the race (I’m sure it was the Sporting Globe), and a stewards report included somewhere. This guy had the previous four starts of this particular nag which showed improvement at every start, it was mentioned once or twice in the stewards report and the races it contested were increasing in distance at every start. Now, I was a dog punter during this time and had no real interest in horses, and was somewhat confused as to how a long shot could be a certainty. It opened at 100 /1. My fellow “crew” assured me that this guy knew his onions so I plonked at 50’s ….. straight out mind you (I was a dog punter remember !).
Well the race started in the straight and the jockey managed to get badly baulked, the horses head went up and it lost lengths, and all hope. It started to make some ground down the back and again the horse got checked, head up again and lost lengths and momentum. It eventually ran a close up third and an absolute certainty beaten !!!
The same rules apply today where you can find a horse “improving” in fitness without it being obvious to the world. They are primed for ONE decent run (whether the trainer knows or not !). I did know a country trainer who passed on to his dad when one of his horses was going OK, and was worth a bet. The trainer’s strike rate was average as far as his tips went AND he missed a few winners from his own stable at mammoth odds !!
It’s only a matter of looking beyond the obvious to find something that’s been missed by the experts.
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