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  #1  
Old 24th February 2006, 08:08 PM
Punter76 Punter76 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 36
Default Is my 1st system ready?

Here is a system I have,
have been recording data for a while. Win only results.

Bets : 239
Return : $386.60 (At worst, this is using one tote only)
Profit on turnover : 62%
Winners : 41 (Other placegetters - 47)
S/Rate : 17.15% (1 in 5.83 selections)
Ave Winning Price : $9.43
3 biggest winners : $37, $21, $21.
3 biggest 2nds : $11, $12, $17
3 biggest 3rds : $26, $24, $13

Would you peeps back this religiously, or wait for more results?
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  #2  
Old 24th February 2006, 08:50 PM
marcus25 marcus25 is offline
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Posts: 172
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Punter76
Here is a system I have,
have been recording data for a while. Win only results.

Bets : 239
Return : $386.60 (At worst, this is using one tote only)
Profit on turnover : 62%
Winners : 41 (Other placegetters - 47)
S/Rate : 17.15% (1 in 5.83 selections)
Ave Winning Price : $9.43
3 biggest winners : $37, $21, $21.
3 biggest 2nds : $11, $12, $17
3 biggest 3rds : $26, $24, $13

Would you peeps back this religiously, or wait for more results?


My POT is less than this but still very healthy, and my SR is around 22%, BUT I have to work for it, (maintaining databases etc.), so I would have a go at it.
Mind you, a strike rate hovering around the 17% mark, is in my opinion, in the throw a dart territory.
Never mind that though, if you have a proposal regarding this, let me know.
I am punting for money not glory.
Cheers Marcus

Last edited by marcus25 : 24th February 2006 at 09:07 PM.
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  #3  
Old 24th February 2006, 09:33 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Posts: 4,366
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Punter76,

I'd have a conservative shot at this until you have double the sample.

Putting it simply, I've seen far worse than this being followed, and your profit is not all made up from the longies.

I'd treat with caution, but certainly have a dip at it for a while, just be prepared to be patient until those winners bob up.

Good Luck.
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  #4  
Old 25th February 2006, 10:11 AM
jacfin jacfin is offline
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Talking Run of outs

P76
What sort of losing streak are you expecting with a 17% hit rate?
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  #5  
Old 25th February 2006, 01:24 PM
Punter76 Punter76 is offline
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Jacfin,

By my quick estimates:
Over 1000 bets
20 should be expected.
30 would be unlucky.

I would probably factor in a drawdown of 50 units.
So betting 1% of account, non-reducible on losing run should be very safe.
That is if the system holds up of course.

Sound about right?

Like Chrome suggested, I'll have $10 on each, but before betting decent amounts I'll monitor for another 250 bets.
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  #6  
Old 25th February 2006, 11:30 PM
jacfin jacfin is offline
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Talking

P76
Your estimates sound spot on to me.
The problem that i have found with all systems over many years is that when you spot a profitable anomaly, as you have, the dreaded "regression to the mean" usually kicks in and brings it back to normal.
Good luck with your system. I hope it is the exception to the rule.
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