How long does it take to prove a system?
Is it a certain number of meetings or do you need to use a time frame?
Does it need to run a full year or can it be judge on consistency over a shorter term?
Discuss.

Many will dispute this, but a few weeks is all it takes.

Disclaimer:
you have to differentiate when and where you are betting.
Your system may (probably will not) perform the same in Metro races as in country or prov. races.

Forget about the "thousand" races needed to prove etc. if you don't produce profit short term, there is no reason you will be in the long term.
Big bank only means you will lose a lot more but it takes longer!!!

Day to day yes, you can be up and down, but if you are losing all week, barring unforeseen conditions circumstances, then my friend the system is a crock.

Good luck

I think it's a difficult question to answer without knowing the full [or at least more details of your system] eg is it purely form based...or it mathematical...a combination of both...or something else I haven't considered.

My feeling is that anything with a heavy form component really needs a full year to expose you to all elements of racing....large fields, small fields, fresh horses, sour horses, wet tracks, dry tracks, good races, bad races, top jocks, other jocks, big trainers, small trainers etc etc

Mathmatical or statistically based methods...I'd still be saying 3 - 6 months minimum...ideas/systems/plans are all good for profit when you look at the early results but it's the longterm that gradually finds you out.

This can be a tricky question.

I feel one needs a min of 3 lots of 150 races.

This will give us a rough picture if the system has any legs or not.

If one batch produces a profit & the other 2 batches brake approx even , you may have a possible system.

I have invented plans based on 3 years stats & in the 4th year , it fails to show a profit - frustrating stuff.

I feel one should try for a consistant 22%+ SR , next ,try & get the best possible price , usually Betfair.

At the end of the day , its the terrible prices one accepts from the TABs that eventually kills most systems off, while trying to recover past losses.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

The best systems take about an instant to prove what they really are "a dog taking you for a walk to ATM", dismiss them all and move on to start using the brain.

I did write here a while back, you need about $1000 a month to actually " make a living" i have since been corrected, i am told its around 1200. ( in my own defence, i did set this 1K figure 5 - 10 years ago )

THINK. 25% strike rate, 25% pto, betting saturdays. how many bets you need to have? and what kind of a bank? what prices, and what about the run of outs?..just do the math, backward enginer just the logistics...when you figure your safe realistic position, youll be better off in real estate.

Also as said, a system with 10 rules, if the 10 criteria are met, then it has 100% chance. BUT if it start form barrier 11 not 10, or its 22 days off, not 21..then in chance of winning is ZERO.

forget about anything else common sence should click in at some point.

HEY lets go sci-fi, even with tomorrows newspaper, system followers would still lose if the winners didn't fit the sytem rules.

Recently i went to my local club, the week the NSW tab was having probs and i also had some renovations done to the home, as i was recently getting hammered by claims that i only win because i get inside info and , most now know how i make a living, Tak , from sat to sat (excluding wednesday ) i gave out 25 selections, 17 won, 23 placed...a win 1$ returned just over 38$...lowest winner paid 1.30, highest $3.80.

On the folowing Sunday, i found out..in the whole club, basicly only 3 people followed near all the selections, 1 guy whos sits most afternoons and consumes about half doz beers and has no idea..about anything(actually thought of as not being too bright)...the young guy who was running the tab (whos says he usually doesnt bet) and the manager of the club .....not sure of the factual amounts of all..but the manager said he bet $10 on each and finished with a little over a $100 profit. and wished the tab worked on its website every week.
from many others i heard , i was broke by that race, i dont back horses 1st up , they were to short ...etc etc.

Again, some people could not win, even with tomorrows newpaper.
and as Bozo the canabal said, "this clown really does taste funny."

E. O.O ..today; Dr Plumb did it with whip at the racetrack....absol' fantatical.

I'd be more conservative.
I've seen one lot of 1000 selections return a lot different on the next 1000 selections, and these were fairly short prices.
But the biggest faux pas is to say "I need 1000 races"
Then filter down to 200 and be confident of future returns.
I already said "I need 1000 races", and that shouldn't change after filters.

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Here's one approach.

Target to win 1.5% a day . (No more than this.)
x 7 days a week
= 10.5% a week

Using $10,000 bank
= $1050 a week.

Your now a professional punter

And if you like , one could offer to pay tax on this & if accepted, claim all expenses accordingly.

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Cheers.

It's a long way from being proven and I'm not sure that I want to let the tax man in on it but, what did you mean by ' if accepted '? Is it difficult to pay tax as a professional punter? Do they have a criteria by which they classify you or is there a $ figure?

BUT why not target 2% then multiply by 7 , or 3%..or etc etc
and have a 20K bank and become richie rich.
and this is great if you have a 100% strike rate

wow ..all this time, i have been programming and studiing the horses form.
and i could be just writing maths. and look, any moment now it pays for itself.

With the maths being that easy, the horses shoudn't be a problem at all
its annoying that how many selections, winners and strike rate come into it.
and of course, the bank does have to be real. as do the bets.
try targeting any percent mechanically in reality....and of course after a few losing bets, I am now chasing my losses, not profits.
Like the 'good times' of easy credit rip offs, you are flat out paying the loan (losses) let alone the principle.

300 races a week, $1 dollar a race = 1200 a month, its as easy as kissing grandma....and even easier for me to type here.

this is again of course is part of SYSTEM THEORY (nothing more) that works so well on past results and on paper ......but just doesnt even have 1 wing, let alone fly irl.
Hey! i have a staking plan to really maximize profits, double the stake on every 5th bet, coz this is how they fell last year. and look on paper it works.

whether you target 1%, 10% or 69%...there are losses and runs of outs.

why not aim, to make just 1 cent the 1st day, and double it till you become a millionaire , 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,$1.28 ...i think i will run out of yellow brick road first..because i am picking up the 'yellow' bricks and selling them to system punters to pay the rent each month.

E. i just re-read my post. maybe i am a bit harsh, but with much toungue in cheek,.... systems can be fun, specially in syndicates - but never long term profitable.

If I may Maurice.....

So how do you select your bets? (Form analysis? How do you select which races to bet on, or how do you disregard races to bet on?)

On average how many bets would you have a day or week (or month if you prefer)?

Do you bet regardless of price? (Do you bet level stakes only?)

Just curious.......thanks in advance.

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Stix
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