Did a study on the races with the most liquidity - UK races for January.
Elsewhere there are missing WAP and Morning WAP prices.
Australian races half the time never record these!

But it will demonstrate how misleading PPWAP figures can be.
Assume 5% full commission rate.
Covers 613 races.

Lay the field at Betfair SP -$507.04
Lay the field at PPWAP -$70.77
Lay the field at Morning WAP -$136.40 (before scratchings)

Lay the favourite at Betfair SP +$444.02
Lay the favourite at PPWAP +$403.51
Lay the favourite at Morning WAP -$338.45 (before scratching deductions)

Lay drifting favourites at Betfair SP -$158.42
Lay drifting second favourites at Betfair SP -$243.42

Lay firming favourites at Betfair SP +$602.44
Lay firming second favourites at Betfair SP +$148.85

Lay firming first and / or second favourites at Betfair SP +$751.29

I used the liability of $30 for this demonstration.
As the very most you could lose per race is $30 I multiplied this by 613 races to get accurate turnover figures.

Turned over $18,390
If you layed firming first and / or second favourites (the best profit), you made 4.08% POT.

Such slim margins explain the long runs of bad results, the need for bet size to be a very low percentage of overall bank, and why bookies are raking it in on drifters given their market percentages and banning any savvy punters who get on firmers early doors.

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