If you want to be a successful punter, Do you need a checklist?

All successful punters follow a set method or approach towards identifying the right races and horses upon which to bet. Whilst we recognise that they may approach this task differently, they all apply their own unique approach on a consistent basis which is essential. That could be based on factors such as pace, a sectional times focus, video analysis, unique proprietary statistics or a combination of all these.

As the resident pro for Ratings2Win, I thought it might assist in summarising the approach that I use each day to identify what I term, the races and horses that profile well from a betting perspective. Before doing this I would like to note a few assumptions:

• All early speed grids (speed maps) are generated for each race automatically using a complex algorithm. The degree of accuracy is very high and as such I do not make subjective assumptions on the maps other than to make some allowance for particular gear changes that could have a bearing on the maps predictions.

• My race probabilities are calculated automatically using a series of complex algorithms and are set to 100%. These preliminary probabilities are then altered as I manually choose what I deem the most appropriate historical speed rating. In most cases emphasis is placed on recent runs.

• Subjective adjustments are also factored in to the final ratings based on track, track condition, rail position, wind speed and direction. This type of subjective influence comes only with years of experience and supportive data.

1. Identify the races that contain my own black book selections and assess those races first. These are a list of horses that have performed beyond my expectations in races. This expectation is based on a series of factors that have the propensity to identify those horses that are often undervalued by the market the next time the horse starts in a suitable race.

2. In assessing a race, identify the various factors that are of importance (these generally have no bearing on the information that is contained in the general race form).

3. Assess the other races (that profile well using my automated systems) to identify whether these horses meet my overall criteria when considering the other runners in that race.

4. During the assessment process summarised in the points above, I review video comments and the race vision itself (emphasis on last two starts and any recent trials) as a tool to support and give confidence to my speed figures.

5. Probabilities are finalised pending any changes on race day that might dramatically require changes being applied.

6. A comparison of my probabilities versus the markets is made automatically for all horses in each potential betting race for both win and place. The pricing algorithms include adjustments for the many factors related to market price bias.

7. Selections are finalised and a subjective assessment is made on how I plan to bet. In other words a determination is made as to my betting strategy for each selection before any action is taken. It should be noted that much of my betting is carried out by agents on my behalf. These can be on or off track and are located in different areas throughout Australia.

8. Lastly, and on an ongoing basis, I undertake out of sample testing across historical data as a means of detecting any trend changes that might be relevant and have either a positive or negative effect on our algorithms. This process ensures that the ~2 million calculations that are processed on a daily basis by the R2W computer remain pivotal in terms of data accuracy and are a big part of maintaining the edge for ourselves and our clients.

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Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/