WHAT IS YOUR REAL WINNING CHANCE ?

Ratings2Win Educational Article


As a punter you need to have a realistic expectation of what each of your bets winning chances are in order to succeed in the long term and stay a winner.

This is because most punters overestimate their likelihood of winning each time they bet regardless of whether the horse is odds-on or a long-shot in the betting.

Therefore being able to determine and understand your real winning chance is fundamental.

How do you do it?

The best and simplest way to determine your winning chance is to examine the price of the horse you are backing. If you back a horse at say $3.00 in theory your winning chance is 33.33% assuming that the actual price of the horse is an exact interpretation of its winning chance which it is not (more on this later). The reality though is it's more likely to be somewhere between 30% and 38%.

Previous research into the psychology of betting would suggest that your own expectation is likely to be significantly more that what reality suggests. In fact it is more likely to be at least twice the actual probability of the horses real winning chance.

This expectation of winning becomes even more of a problem the shorter the price (i.e. odds on). The reality is though that the shorter the price the more likely it is that the horse will win closer to what its market price* suggests. In terms of longer priced horses the opposite applies. This phenomena is known as the 'Favourite Long Shot Bias' (FLSB). I have personally conducted thorough research on this subject over a number of years and have found that our market in Australia exhibits and mirrors characteristics of the FLSB.

Note

* Market price is used as the SP (starting price of the horse) in NSW and VIC betting markets and the average of the TABCORP prices for other markets such as QLD, SA and WA. This is mainly due to NSW and VIC being the most competitive and true markets whilst the other states especially QLD often have a SP that is not an accurate assessment of a horses chance (their betting market percentages are too large in comparison).

Key Points:

- Your expectation of winning should be related back to a horses market price (unless you have access to accurate probability assessments);
- Always go into each bet knowing what your expectation of winning really is;
- Don't be scared of taking odds on because of any pre conceived ideas; and
- Remember there are no absolutes to betting except for the certainty of probabilities. Understanding this will make you a better punter.

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Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/