Hi chrome prince

Just read this post after my last post below...can you advise if there is such a programme that has the capabilities that i outlined in that post?

cheers

I'm working on pretty much exactly what you outlined except for the weight carried.

I have over 10 million horse runs in a database, and am currently looking at rating horses as follows...
Take the track record over each distance and each going.
Take the actual race time of the last race.
Convert the winner's time to a rating off the same record.
For each horse, by beaten lengths, calculate the time off track record.

In ths way, I can line up a 1200m Dead race at Rosehill with a 1400m Good race at Randwick.
A clear picture should emerge of horses rated by time ranking.
I will be using actual individual saddle transponder info to convert the beaten lengths over various distances to time.
So no standard par or set formulae, as they change depending on pace, distance and going.
Rough initial testing finds that this method of time handicapping is fine regardless of the weight carried.
I know many will throw up their hands at this, but the figures seem to suggest that weight is a fairly insignificant factor.
Perhaps over the real distance races, it has a bigger impact, but the shorter sprints seem to suggest, that weight is minor.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Chrome,

Where do you find individual sadle transponder times ? Isnt this something only available at a few tracks and a fairy tale for majority of the selections that you would be rating ? Personaly I wish it wasent , as we as punters and main income providers to the whole show are treated as wood ducks, feed scraps of error ridled information that was state of the art 30 years ago and hasent changed much since.

Michal

Hi Chrome

Thats great to hear...when do you expect to have this complete? will is be part of a new version of your racecensus software? I would hear when this project if finished.

cheers

Hopefully I'll be releasing version 7 by the end of the week.
The times part will be done for W.A. by the end of the month.
If there is an advantage fow W.A., I'll move on to do the rest of them.

The sectionals with transponders are available rom Sky, TVN etc.
I don't need it for all tracks, I just need it for the conversion of lengths to time.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Have you looked at this site ? Daniel has his own speed ratings and website and couldn't reccommend him more highly. His own database and ratings system was built and constructed over a long period of time. I have no connection to the site except for being a customer / his ratings have suggested good and bad betting races and has completly changed my betting losses into profits. Actually i think he used to post on here as O'SULLDJ. Very smart cookie but only does metropolitan meetings, i have emailed him and asked him about provincial races and he responded with a maybe in the future.

If the worst thing you do is join for free and read his art**********************:-)

Hi

I am new to this forum. I am fiddling around with time ratings and found the different points of view on this thread interesting. I am slowly putting together a set of my own par times and will probably be restricting my use of these par times to races of 1600 metres or less, as I feel time ratings for distances any greater than 1600 metres are subject to too much variation.

A problem I see though is that a race over 1600 metres could still have horses in it that have recently raced over 1800 or 2000 metres and knowing the value of these runs can be important. The problem with calculating a time rating for a distance race is that there can be great variations in the winning times (due to lack of pace, etc.) which leads to great variations in the time rating (when compared to the variations in ratings for shorter distances).

At the other end of the distance scale, I have also noticed that winning times for 1000 metre races seem to be bunched quite a bit closer together than the winning times for races over 1200 and 1400 metres, meaning ratings for 1000 metre races may end up being greater than they should be (when comparing them to ratings for 1200 and 1400 metre races).

What I am wondering is: do people that have developed and used their own time ratings make allowances in their calculations for the distance the time rating has been run over (apart from the fact that there is a small difference in the time per length as the distance increases or decreases) ?

I hope I have explained myself well enough here