Are there any stats for the average beaten margin, to use as a datum to compare a horses current beaten margin. Let's say the average beaten margin is 1 length and a horse that came second last start was beaten by a neck compared to a horse coming second, beaten by 2 lengths. A possible filter to sort out the potential of maiden horses in particular which I find the hardest to handicap.
Cheers RP

Hi RP
I realise this is not exactly what you're after but some time ago I researched the angle you're looking at now. Or something similar. What prompted my research was that I noticed some maidens could be beaten by a considerable distance but start next time at, on the face of it, an unjustifiably short price.
I don't have a database so the figures were compiled manually and use S-Tab starting prices.
I created an excel file with a summary of the data to use for lookup purposes when assessing which horses were most fancied for no apparent reason.

A few words of explanation of the attached excel file:
a) rows 2 to 21 refer to an actual race seconds before the jump.

b) rows 28 to 69 are the summary of the collected historical data.
c) cells a28 and a29 refer to all horses beaten by 0.1 to 1,0 lengths last start.
cells b28 and b29 show the average S/P at the next start for all horses beaten beaten by those margins last start.

d)the headings for the actual race data are self explanatory and Factor refers to the number of times the anticipated odds (i.e. tote s/p -1.00) are greater than the actual odds.

I was unable to determine a magic number that could be used as the decisive cutoff point at which a winner could be guaranteed. In fact, it wasn't always the highest Factor that provided the winner but the winner often came from the top two or three and rarely from the lower Factors.

I hope this is of some use to you.

Cheers
Ron

Attached Files

Calculator.xls (28.5 KB, 570 views)

Cheers for that Ron. I've had a brief look at it and can't quite get my head round it , but will have a fresh look in the morning.
Thanks again for your assistance
Regards, RP

Hi RP,
I've just reread my post and can see why you can't get your head around it. It's harder to read than a proposition by Wittgenstein.
I should have explained that the spreadsheet is used to select bets on the basis of seemingly unwarranted short prices for well beaten last start margins.
To use it just enter the last start beaten margin for each horse in column B (I use 99 for a scratching or first starter.) This takes about a minute or two. Then at one minute before the start time enter the Stab price in column D. This takes about 30 seconds.
The figure that then appears in column E will indicate which horses are being bet more than the last start margin would justify. The larger this figure is the more it is being bet over what you would expect.

I've just had a little play with it today for a short period and the results were thus;
Sale Race 3 Highest factor 1st @ $2.50
2nd and 3rd highest provide Tri $54.30

Sun Coast 3 By far the Highest factor came 3rd $2.20 place

Gunnedah 4 Highest factor 1st @ $2.10

Unfortunately, I was unable to see earlier races so no point in going over it now. You might wish to for your entertainment.

Also, as previously mentioned I've still to work out the best way to use the information. Hope you have some luck with it.
Cheers
Ron

-17	1	0.00%
-15	4	0.01%
-14	1	0.00%
-13	4	0.01%
-12	9	0.03%
-11	9	0.03%
-10	31	0.10%
-9	45	0.14%
-8	106	0.33%
-7	165	0.51%
-6	321	0.99%
-5	627	1.93%
-4	1266	3.89%
-3	2459	7.56%
-2	5004	15.38%
-1	8793	27.03%
0	13691	42.08%
	32536

This is just a test done on Favourites winning margins everywhere.
0 = 0.0 - 0.9L
I found this in a post by Vortech, don't know how the search engine didn't come up with it.
OK using the above the Average Winning Margin for Favourites is 1.55 lengths. Vortech, if you get time can you run a search on the Winning Margin for Winners, thanks.
RP

I'll see what I can do for you.

I'll run it for every venue every day.

Cheers

Just for 2012 - around 18,000 races tested
1.1 to 1.2L was the average winning margin

Thanks heaps Vortech
RP

I note looking at the average beaten margin, of +$30 BF Back priced horses that won their next race, is 5 lengths!
So beaten margin is NOT a factor to consider with these type of horses.
RP