I have been following a topweights for the past 7 or 8 weeks sat only M,S,B,A,P.
must have s/r 41%+
races distance 1100 to 1600 only
last start within 28 days
last start in city or open good class country
results very good my s/r 50 % with some good divs eg.Paraca $19.00
Anyone care to run the system for a longer period as I don't have the data or system.
Cheers
Crasher

Just ran it over part of the year 2000 to get a different aspect and it had 160 selections for a return of $148.30.

thanks Chrome prince not as good as I hoped, one thing I missed I don't bet on restricted races maybe that might make a difference but on the look of 2000 not there yet.
Crasher

Hello boys,

Looking at this system is it immediately apparent that it’s simply a variation of the old Tab#1 bet.

However, I ran it exactly as cited over a long term (13 yrs) and Chrome Prince is correct … SR 29% LOT –7.2%. If you simply substitute “Fav” for the performance criterion then the SR shifts to 34% and the LOT reduces to –5%.

You see the problem is the price/SR nexus is such that the profit is absorbed by the bookmaker/TAB.

TAB’s typically settle at 117% (15% commission + $0.05 per win bet rounding (as a hidden fee)) and bookies are set anywhere between 115% and 160% depending on what they think they can get away with.

Diehard systemateers stop reading here.

Now, most of the systems I’ve seen on this forum generate short priced horses without the strike rate to match and this is precisely the trap I fell into for the first couple of years of my punting career. Although I had my share of winners I might as well have invested my bank in a savings pass book and earned 0.9% POT.

Then I started to rate horses (using that evil creature – a computer) and run statistical analyses on my results.

I discovered that where a Fav is in my top 2 then it’s SR lifts to 40% and suddenly Faves are profitable, where the Fav is outside 2 then it has a less than 10% SR and I make money by backing my top 2 for 1:5 (Insurance) or place only.

The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available, I wouldn’t know one end of a horse from the other …… to get the Field I count the legs and divide by 4 ………, but I DO know about numbers. The WSR of my top 2 ranges from 60% at 8 field to 43% at field 14.

An earlier post of mine pointed you in the direction of beaten distance but was decried by the pseudo cogniscenti on the basis that it takes too long …. let me tell you ………….. I rate every Australian race (other than NT) 7 days a week and to rate every horse in a full days races takes less than a minute.

All I’d like punters to do is to THINK.

Punting isn’t an easy way to make a few $$$$, but it can be VERY rewarding if you put in a little effort.

Time to go and give Mr Costello his pound of flesh.

CU, darlings, ... oh and apologies if I've offended anyone this time.

Felicity

Yes, more often than not some angle you come up with has already been factored into the price unless you can come up with something original or not readily available.
Jockey - Trainer - win S/R - Distance - Track - last start placing - beaten margin etc etc.
I found this through my research.



Yes, faves can be profitable - but only if you run the test on enough data - minimum 2 years (the more the better) and have a unique angle.



Felicity, I'm interested in your rating method, not all the details, just the basics. Is it yours or price predictor or some other software?


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-20 17:02 ]

Felicity did say The rating method I use is COMPLETELY statistically based and is publicly available.....i for one would love to see what it is as i find ratings out way systems any day if you get them right

Felicity
Thanks for the thought provoking response....like the other guys I would like to know where you access you publicly available ratings...any info gratefully received.
Cheers
Crasher

Hi Felicity, I have no interest at all - please by all means keep it all to yourself - you deserve it.

Chrome Prince, I work using Relative Frequency. I originally programmed the thing in a spreadsheet using macros but have now moved to a home written C++ prog.

Data is 5 start data from Cyberhorse at a cost of $240 p.a. which I parse into a .dbf format for ease of use.

The lookup tables are taken from Thoroughbred Handicapping Tables and some other snippets from Roger Biggs books, the method is described in Handicapping By Numbers but Biggs is one of those writers who won’t tell you exactly how he does it but he does give what elements he uses in A Handicapping Miscellany.

For the past year I’ve been able to match (and sometimes better) his results (he sells his ratings) so I know I’m on the right track and the contents of my purse confirms it.

If it’s consistency yr looking for then this method will provide it and also tell you which races to stay away from (a very handy clue).

The systemateers will find a beaut system in Adventures In Handicapping which shifts the fav SR over 50%.

Incidentally, Biggs books are an easy read but if yr going to use his methods then you need to be able to do some programming (at spreadsheet macro level) or be prepared to cherry-pick your races and be a whiz with a calculator.

As you’ll gather I’m a bit of a fan of his :smile:

Poor Ole Phil ..... just couldn't resist it, could you.

Gotta go, the mainframe is caaaalllllliinnnggggggg.

Felicity.

FELICITY,

I to have purchased all Biggs books and are a fan of his methods.

I was wondering if you would have any interest selling your program as I do not have the know how to construct such a beast.

Currently I am doing all calculations manaually and you will understand I only have the time to do 1 race per saturday.

TD