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Old 24th February 2004, 10:06 AM
stebbo stebbo is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Yarra Valley
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"When betting a system, I expect the longest run of outs and maximum drawdowns to double at some stage during my betting ..."
You are meaning double compared with back test period? What raw pot on back test do you cosider minimum to warrant further investigation of a potential system?


Hi Tony,

sorry, but I'm not sure what you mean by an "equity curve", so can't help you there. And I'm an excel novice myself... I write all my own software, so have a very simple program which reads the PPP CSV file and calculates a lot of what I want.

As for what POT I'm looking for, that depends upon the sample size... If there's only 100 bets, then I'm looking for at least 80% POT. If there's 1000 bets, then I'd look closely at something with 30% POT, although I prefer something around the 40% to 50%.

It seems that at the moment, my "successfully" backtested systems are running at about 5% less S/R and about 20% less POT.

Cheers,
Chris.
 


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