A mate of mine just sent me this selection method. Comments welcomed.

1) Operate on Saturday Class (over $40,000) races only.

3) Eliminate 2 Year Old and 3 year old races
(3YO & Up races are okay)

4) Do not operate on Set weight or Weight for Age races (ie handicaps only)

5) Take the minimum weight, ignoring apprentice claims and add 3.5kg. This is called the MIDWEIGHT.

6) Add 1.5kg to and subtract 1.5kg from the Midweight. This 3kg range is called the WEIGHT RANGE. Selections must fall within the Weight range. Eg 52kg minimum, weight range is 54kg to 57kg.

7) Look at the last three starts of each runner in the weight range.
Qualifiers are runners whose last three starts add up to 11 or less. (EG 6,3,2) Spells count as 10.

Look at the last two starts of each Qualifier. Runners whose last two starts add up to 4 or less (EG 2,1) are SELECTIONS.

9) If more than one Selection in a race, back both if at least 2/1 can be obtained. Otherwise back the runner at the longer odds.

The idea seems to be to catch in-form runners that the handicapper has missed or under handicapped.

I live and bet in Melbourne only. A quick look at the formguide shows the following as selections under this method for tomorrow:

MR3 No.3 Command Force

MR5 No.6 Storm Attack

MR7 No.3 Lord Baracus

MR8 No.2 Filming
No.6 Maicostus

Other filters such as wet track ability (especially in Melbourne) could be used to modify selections.

I'll watch and post results.

Thoughts?

A disappointing start. I'll keep following
until I get bored.

Command Force 2nd ($1.50)
Storm Attack 2nd (1.80)
Lord Baracus 4th
Filming 8th
Maicostus 7th (didcostus)

Three selections under this method for Flemington, Saturday.

Race 5 No.4 Storm Attack

Race 7 No.3 Inkamulla

Race 8 No.5 Best Intentions

[ This Message was edited by: Reenster on 2002-07-05 17:13 ]

Storm Attack: 3rd.
Inkamulla: Last.
Best Intentions: Last.

Bored Now.

Reenster, if you add a simple rule to the plan and bet for a place only, your system becomes amazingly profitable.

Rule 10): Horse must be named Storm Attack.

Back test, you will see what I mean :wink:.

Placegetter

Ahh, so that's how these retrofitters work their magic. That's a 100% strike rate.

With a 3rd and a 2nd from its past two starts, Storm Attack can't qualify next start. Unless of course it wins next start then I'll modify the rule that says the runner's last 2 starts must add up to 4 or less.

And the name of this method? The Hindsight Theory.

I kind of wondered why the mate who shared this method with me still has holes in his socks. :smile: