Hi all,

I just want to toss something around with the hope of getting some of your brains to help me here. I have a "blackbook" of say around 30 to 40 horses that I enter in order to back next start. I am sure most of you do this.

I then use a moderate increasing type staking plan wherein I increase my bet slightly after each loss. When I have cleared a run and make a profit I start all over again. My dilemna is where I get races that I have multiple horses starting, say 2, 3 or maybe more on the odd occasion.

How would you work a staking plan when this occurs, as eg, all the multiple horses lose and you have put an equal amount on each dependant on your current bet, your losses add up a lot quicker than with just one horse per race and things tend to get out of hand faster. Should you divide the current bet by the number of horses in a race, it would be also hard to complete the current run if you get my drift, (as you would have say only a third of your required bet on it).

I've been cruising along ok with all horses having a strike rate of around 30%. I must admit today was a bit of a disaster which has now made me ask this question.

Any thoughts..?

Regards
Paul

G'day paul,

I used to do this in th e UK with some success, in fact in most cases your pick will win eventually and show a good profit.
I strongly suggest that you treat each horse on the list as a separate sequence, sure sometimes you have 3 in the same race , you back the winner but end up losing but conversly sometimes the 33-1 shot gets home and you're a long way in front, one thing that I HAVE learned is that you have to stick to it, by all means have a maximum amount that you are prepared to lose on that sequence but then stick to it through thick and thin.

By example I've had a good run recently except for race 8 at Perth, my plan called for an equal maximum bet on Mikaldiko and Who Did It, as it happened I won money, but if Who Did It had won I would have had a fantastic day, if I'd chickened out who knows?? you have to take it to the limit (your limit)

With a Black book plan , the idea is to make a profit on that horse over its next 5-7 runs, then usually drop it out of ones stable of black Bookers, so as to leave room for another to be added.

Theoretically it should not matter how many there are in the race because we are targeting for one of them to clear their individual slate so they can be deleted from our Stable.
Now this can get expensive if one has not factored this into ones financial resources to fund such an encounter.

The average stat for a horses winning career is approx 16% which works out at approx 1: 6.66 ratio of winning

It is suggested to have no more than 10-20 in ones stable at any one time.
Maybe this helps with scenario.

What I am reading here is that you are trying to profit on a race , rather than treating each horse individually.

It is suggested not to bet if there are 4 or more, of ones horses in the same race.
If we do this & one just happens to win, we have to delete him from the stable & cop the loss on the critter that owes us, but that could be more cost effective than backing all the horses of your stable.

A compromise would be to only bet those that are paying $15+ & take the risk that the shorter priced ones don't get up, because one will kick themselves if a 33/1 shot gets up.

My suggestion if 4 or more in the same race, bet those that are $15+ & cop the loss on any of the other stable horses that owes us, plus delete that horse from the stable, should it get up.

Maybe none will get up in this race & you have saved yourself a Motza.

After all , only one can win the race.

Another thing about following stable horses , is try not to fall in the trap of betting them if they are paying less than $4.50
It has been the undoing of many who have chased this idea because they see a short price & assume he must win, only to be disappointed.
If one does get up under this figure of $4.50 which some will , delete him from the stable cop any small loss, so a replacement can be found.

Don't forget that one has others to feed in the stable, if they don't do their thing over 5-7 runs so value is important.

It might be an idea to work out what percentage of stable horses fail to deliver , that way one will know if the selection process is a viable one.


Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks guys, two very interesting and differing replies there. Party is saying along the lines of what I currently do and I take your point, stick in when it looks like your getting into hot water, but have a cut off point,....hmmm, must ponder on this cut off point.

Then Bhagwan is saying to treat each black book horse on its own and follow such for 5 to 7 starts. Would an incremental staking plan be applied here..??
If it was horse A, might be on the say third leg of such a plan and horse B might be on the 5th leg of such a plan, both in the same race, and then with varying amounts on each according to the run.

I've never contemplated looking at it from this point of view. Basically what I do following every saturday sydney and melbourne racing is go through all the sectional times, copy and paste them into a spreadsheet where I have various formulas etc etc, and analyse each race as I watch the replay on tv, and the runs I like are entered into my bb.

I then back that horse next start providing that race is within 21 days and the horse isnt going up 3kgs or more in weight. Most failures are immediately deleted and horses that have not started in the 21 days are also deleted. Once I looked back over all of my bets when I was looking at a couple of stats and not many of them won at the following start after the one that I backed it in, not that I kept accurate records, only an observation.

Most winners are usually left in and backed again at their next start as their run/win must have had merit. Some others might be left in also.

And then the process starts all over again following the saturday.

Now Bhagwan your throwing a rather different light on all this, chin in hand here now pondering away.

Thanks again,
Paul

Paul, yes by cut off point I mean say you are prepared to follow each horse 5 times (or whatever) I mean stick it out to the last bet.
Or if target betting then you decide what is the maximum amount you are prepared to lose on any one horse trying to win a given amount, and again stick to that right up to the last bet.

I say this cos, if you chicken out as soon as there's a bit of heat, you will never get those spectacular wins. (better than any drug I've heard of)

One thing you might look at is that, a lot of horses seem to win at about the same time (of year) as last year .