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#11
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Price.
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#12
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Sorry crash but you are confusing me. Might be best for me to wait for Bhagwan to reply.
Cheers, Blocka. |
#13
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Quote:
Not too many selections, but based on the last 12 months metro races on Saturdays only: WIN PLACE S.R./Race : 21.6% 51.4% % P.O.T. : -24.6% -18.1% |
#14
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Blocka, sorry to confuse.
A horse with a 100% place rate [would be a very young horse], would have a shockingly short starting price and a system based on that rule would be worthless. |
#15
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Blocka, for the same reason you have last start finished 4th or worse, to try and get some value into selections.
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#16
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Hi Blocka,
My data base can do margins. I found the 4th last start without the margin rule to be more profitable in this particular exercise. The place percentage refers to 1st,2nd,3rds. The 5-49% was where the value was , admittedly I shoehorned the stats that were in front of me to create a profit at that point in time . It probable shows a profit because it is a professional winner & not a professional place getter Maybe this 49% rule should be scrapped. But that is where the value was. Those results could change the following year , that`s the frustrating bit of system analysis. The figures showed that higher the place SR the lower the dividend. . Crash has some valid points about system testing ,which I agree with. Especially the 70% & 30% of the data base. The margins makes for a logical argument but getting the value is another. The plan pulled a number of double digit prices so it has some merit. Why it works best at provincial rather than Country & Metro ,is a mystery to me , but thats how the stats fell. The original stats I have shown had the margin left out because it did not show a profit, that was the only change to the original result of that +663 result which equated to approx 25% POT
__________________
Cheers. |
#17
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Going on Bagman's original 17% SR for this system you can expect from 1000 bets with a 99.99% probability chance:
26 runs of 10 outs [26 lots of 10 looses in a row]. 10 runs of 15 outs. 4 runs of 20 outs. These are a spread example of everything in between. |
#18
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Blocka
Did you take the tip. The Big Ask today. Best win strike rate and best average prizemoney in the race. Home He comes. Good Punting |
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