BAT is supposed to give you the last traded price, so apparently "if" you backed it just prior to the jump this would be the price. However, people need to be aware that the BAT price is often incorrect. I have compared the downloaded history with BAT prices and it is very often way out.

But over 100's of bets, I'm sure it evens out to be reliable enough for system testing.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Pugnosis

I'm only laying the "11.00 or less" selections, and at the moment only for small money. I find I can usually get a feel for the direction of the market (tools with near realtime market updates like Fairbot are essential), so I'll generally put an offer in just below the current highest offer, and tweak it up or down depending on the moves. You'll see this in the attached file "CancelledLays.gif". My first offer of $9.80 on "Sweet Julia" was placed around 16:07 (3 minutes before the scheduled jump), I then tweaked this up to $10.00 at 16:08. The drift continued so the $10.00 offer was cancelled fairly quickly and I placed my final offer of $11.00 within the last two minutes before the scheduled jump. You'll see this offer lapsed in the file "LapsedLays.gif".

Using an exchange you could easily place a "stop loss" bid above the $11.00 cut-off mark. So if you layed early and the price drifts you could cover your position. I've done this in the past.

I do take your point that but for a couple of keener backers "Sweet Julia" could have started at $11.00 or less, but on the other side of the coin, over the duration of this trial there's been a number of selections that have drifted over the $11.00 mark just before the jump and didn't end up winning the race. These were then recorded in the "11.50 and greater" price division as a loss. Swings and roundabouts

I've tried to be pretty straight up with the results and have used the B.A.T. prices as these are as close as you're likely to get if you lay the selection right on the jump. As Chrome says, any variances are likely to even out so for system test purposes I reckon they'll do. The prices posted are then available for anybody to check for themselves, and I don't insult anybody's intelligence by making claims of laying at lesser prices.

I recieved an e-mail yesterday from another forum member thanking me for yesterdays longshot tips. Can't please all the people all the time I guess

Only one week to go.

Attached Files

SweetJulia.zip (34.0 KB, 663 views)

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Hey Pixie

I hope you didn't take my post as you trying to fudge results. I was just curious that is all. I reckon that this is one of the better threads I have followed and if I had your email address I would have emailed you too with congratulations! With a statistics type background Betfair just intrigues me and I am trying to read the markets to gain an advantage whether it be with trading or straight out backing and laying to get best price. So far there is nothing that is obvious to me!

Sweet Julia was just a perfect example for me to ask how you went about using your selections as with a cutoff like you have got their may be a few that might change from back to lay and vice versa. I suppose it will all even out in the end!

Keep up the good work as these threads are valuable reading

Cheers
Pugnosis

Pug

No I didn't take it that way at all.

You've highlighted the issue I was having earlier in the thread as to whether I should keep putting these selections up. When you set a limit (just like a speed limit on the road) I think there's a tendency for it to be tested. In this case it looks to me as if the posted price of all the selections are slowly being drawn into the area around $11.00. This is a visual observation only but at a glace our lay accidents are at longer prices, and our backed winners are shorter. I doubt very much that we'll get winners like Cinque Cento at $34.00 and losers like Chief Hennessy at $2.40 whilst the selections are posted publically.

I think it's quite likely that some of the selections would have finished in the other price range to the one they did if they were not listed here. Not blowing my own trumpet in saying that just an observation given the 100-150 hits this thread gets on a Saturday morning and early afternoon. The results have become skewed to the centre I think, and some dangerously so I think the impatient or inexperienced are probably taking silly prices too early in the betting.

The secret really is to get on as late in the piece at possible when the variations in the markets have been evened out. As I said earlier you do get a feel for the moves after you've been laying for a while, though this isn't always true of the provincial markets where some odd moves can take place very late in betting. Also take advantage of the benefits of using an exchange and protect yourself by "greening-up", or taking a small loss if the market swings against you. Tools like Fairbot and Bet Angel Basic have a "bum covering" button that let's you do this with a single click.

Again Pug, it never even crossed my mind that you were having a "go". Anyway it's all about learning from and sharing the experiences of others, which goes hand-in-hand with constructive critisism. I think this point has been lost in some of the other threads.

PS: I'm just finishing "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The guy's had way too much time to contemplate his belly button, but does present some eye opening arguments as to the role of luck in the markets. An insightful but over-wordy read.

PPS: Thanks for the nice comments too.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Speaking off strange moves, there was a horse called Bankers Lamp in the first race at Cranbourne on Saturday that opened with the books @ $2.70 and blew like a tornado out to $41 and up to $110 with betfair.

They very nearly got their fingers burned badly as it ran second.

I very nearly scored the bet of the day

This sort of thing is happening frighteningly regularly.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Yep that's a big move alright I find the Gold Coast is the worst culprit on a Saturday, but nothing like that.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Well this is it for "Pixie's Pix" on this forum. As promised the trial ends today, which looks like a bit of a quiet and tricky one. Thanks for you indulgence. Hope you've managed to stay ahead.

CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac
CHEL05-01 El Seigneur
CHEL05-07 Miss Presley
CHEL07-10 Silent Action
HAWK09-12 Jewel Point
MORN06-05 Gold Play
MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms
MORN06-08 Juivanka
MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama
MORN08-05 Senor De Lago
MORN09-07 Madicon Trail
RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow
RAND03-07 Grizz
RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas
SANH08-04 Snappy Tom
SANH08-12 General Nediym
SCST02-06 Court Adjourned

BLMT and TWBA to follow.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Oops

Thought something didn't look quite right. Forgot the Gold Coast and one selection from Sandown. Sorry. Not too late though.

GCST06-04 Authoress
GCST06-05 Grand Lover
GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead
GCST09-09 Crackaway
SANH06-02 Chiack

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Here's the Belmont selections.

BLMT02-03 Mythalo
BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot
BLMT05-06 Old Guru
BLMT06-06 Metal Power
BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder
BLMT07-01 Arctic Park
BLMT07-08 River Mist

TWBA still to come.

PS: Suddenly it's turned into a busy day

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Doesn't look like there are any selections for Toowoomba. All the best

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash