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Old 28th May 2009, 05:21 PM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Default OK, for those who like systems

I don't remember where I got this one from but it apparently works. I don't follow it because betting on systems to me is like watching paint dry. I'd rather lose handicapping [I do OK nowadays] that play a system.

"It is a place system for backing clear favorites for a place
I have twigged and adjusted the rules over time but they have always been based on favorites $2 clear in the win market.
TAB of course on which race is held
I look for clear favs and place odds value
I find it works better on Saturdays than other days
and marginally better on metrop to other.
Having said that, analysis shows that Saturday gold coast has both the best strike rate and best av div and of course best return.

Look at local TAB win odds 3 min before jump

If fav less than $2 short of next in win betting ignore race

If fav => $2 shorter than next in betting and paying at least $1.60 for place it is a bet.
$3 $1.40
$2 and 100 pointer TAB on line or latemail and paying at least $1.40
$2 and both 100 and late mail $1.20


this will give you about 75% strike rate at av div around $1.40 say POT around 5%

but I go all up until I have three times start bet
so if start bet is 4 units all up until 12 units+ then stop usually 2 3 or 4 legs depending on divs.

First bet is 2 units then when you lose increase opening bet for next sequence by 1 unit.
When successful reduce commencing bet for next sequence by 3 units to minimum of 2 units.
Suggest bank of 100 units has less than 1% chance of going broke.

Strike rate of selections is around 75%
Strike rate of sequences is around 40% at av return of around 2.8 of commencing bet for a POT around 12%
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