TheSchmile, I have broken down the prices of the losing lays but unfortunately I can't find anything consistent with them.

Because I only lay the selections on S.P. and not on the exchange, an accident be it a fave or a huge outsider is fortunately a loss of only $33 regardless of price, so I'm not too worried about a blowout if there's a $200 accident, whilst an accident at this price on the exchange might wipe most if not all of the profit, depending on its price. Laying on the exchange the higher the price of the accident then the more is lost.

I would not be surprised that if I had layed the selections on the exchange and not on S.P., the method might not even be in profit, which it currently is. With S.P. the loss is not high but so too the profit is relatively small. It's a trade-off but I think it might be safer to lay outsiders on S.P. than on the exchange.

Fortunately there have not been any accidents today yet, but it can happen when least expected.

Please ignore.

Hi Michaelg and SpeedyBen,

I would argue that it would only make sense to leave the really large priced horses in if they were making a profit at level stakes laying them. At this stage it's probably way too early to know.

I'm also not sure it would make sense to lay horses at higher than the DS $101, $201 or $301 price?

Anyway, just throwing ideas out there. Time will tell and I wish Michaelg as always the best of success!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

TheSchmile, thanks for the wishes.

I could be wrong but I think that the method is currently showing a profit laying both the favoured and outsider selections. But I would have doubts if I had layed them on the exchange. From the current seven accidents I think six of them were at fairly large odds.

And probably less than 6 with LG's 'long shot trimmer' switch?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

To work out level stakes just work out for a $1 win for all successful lays (93.5c with commission removed) and then deduct all your losing horse prices.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Thanks, The Ocho. When I get time I will do so by checking the prices of the seven accidents shown on the Betfair Results site.

Today's 28 selections became 28 smiles for a disappointing profit of $13.13.

I've calculated how the system by laying $33 S.P. compares to $1 level stakes laying on the exchange from commencement (7/Dec) of the method.

By laying level stakes of $1 on the exchange the seven accidents would have removed $305 from the bank, but the 403 smiles would have added $377 to the bank for a net profit of $72.

As comparison, laying $33 S.P. per selection for the same period generated a profit of $99.47.

Because the price of the average accident on the exchange was $43 that if there were two more accidents then the method would most likely be in the red.

However, during the same period laying S.P. it would have taken 3 more accidents for the method to break-even.

The above figures suggests that laying S.P. is the way to go with this method?

Yes michaelg. I reckon it is always best to lay to SP when laying outsiders as then you know how much you will lose should one of those animals actually win a race. If laying at flat stakes a big $500 shot (or whatever) would just wipe you out.

It was an intersecting comparison and it's good to see that at level stakes you are showing a profit.

Well done and keep it up.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Thanks, T.O.

For some reason after analysing the positive results of the method laying S.P. versus laying level stakes on the exchange my confidence is now inexplicably a lot lower. However, the results say my pessimism should be unwarranted, only time will tell...

Today's selections:

Kilmore
3/3
5/3, 6

Townsville
4/4
5/2, 7
7/9

M'brook
1/4, 10, 11
2/6, 12
3/4, 6
5/11
6/10
7/14