Thanks for the advice all.

Mark, we are probably duelling for the same lays. If you are interested in UK results, you can get live inrace text commentary at http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses - site also has betting flucs, form and ratings.

Thanks to the Dr & Shy for the sites, and to Chrome Prince for the site re winners & betting positions. I guess that site rests my case. No matter where the races are or what the conditions I'll be laying the shorties.

Hi

I asked a similiar question a couple of weeks ago and was recommended Betfair as well.

Taking aside the moral issue (in that no Betfair money comes back to Aus to support the industry) and the legal issues raised recently in the Melbourne Herald Sun, there are more fundamental things for us to consider.

1. Go through Betfair's histroical records and you'll find some pretty thin pools, so if you are looking to lay big dollars, you may not find enough punters to take the other side.

2. In a simple 10 race sequence, let's say we sick to the 30% stat. You lay all favourites at 3.0. You take a dollar a race, but lose on three races. In $10, out $9, Profit $1 or 10% on turnover. However, change the stats only slightly in the punters favour and you lose. That's why bookies lay lots of horses, laying one leaves you vulnerable.

Sometimes you see people say they layed a horse at betfair, and then later backed it at a better price - hence locking in a profit. Fine, but do you see many drifting favourites? You may need to consider laying a number of horses.

3. Right now spread betting is all the rage. Some books and sites will have you believe you can lay tennis games in the UK and lay off yourself on tennis in the US. Spread betting is abritage and we know from the stock market where these inefficiences exist they are quickly snapped up. It is my contention that it is only the small pools currently on offer on some of these exchanges that stop large punters coming in and cleaning up and thus supressig, via sheer volumes of money, what advantage there is. I'm taking about laying and then finding another site to bet with. Plus you have to consider exchange rates and movements when you want to repatriate your cash back in Oz.

4. Someone mentioned IAS favourite/field betting. IAS generally offer this bet on any horse race where they are offering fixed odds. Sometimes you see the prices on their website, sometimes not. I have had fav/field bets and not seen an online quote. I just say this so you know this is a regular bet type you can do and for big dollars.

5. While IAS say thay make a 106/108% market, I find at the track (I live in Melb) you can lay a favourite to a tighter market via a combination of bookies and the tote, i.e back everything except the favourite to take $100 (or multiples of)

6. Any of this spread/laying betting means small returns, which means you need a high strike rate. This is itself presents many money management issues.

7. I got really excited about betting against the favourite a while ago and have tried a number of strategies but ran into the issues above.

Anyway just my two cents worth

Laurence

Laurence,

I have no problem with most of what you say although a couple of minor points:

1. If you are talking about Australian races then I wouldn't pay too much attention to the historical pool sizes - they are growing each week. Obviously you won't be able to lay huge bets on every race but for most of us that is not a big issue :smile:

2. Laying a single horse is no riskier than backing a single horse - you either win or lose. Obviously you need to adjust your bet sizes according to your bank level - so if you typically back horses at $100 a time are are laying a horse at 5/1 then you should probably only put $25 up so if you lose your loss is $100.

4. The main problems with IAS fav/field betting are firstly that you are limited to the favourite (ie. you cannot lay other runners, only the favourite) and secondly if they do not have the odds on the website you have to phone to get them and then, I believe, you must have a bet. Personally I like to know the price without being committed to buying the item!


I can't speak for the others who have commented on this issue but I feel it is a worthwhile option to explore but I certainly wont be limiting myself to favourites only (although to limit exposure I wouldn't lay anything above about 10/1 initially - maybe later if I have built a decent bank)

Laurence

Thank goodness all favs are not paying 3.00. So for what I now do, your figures don't add up. I lay short favs to lose a certain amount. ie I take more on odds on runners than say those at 2/1. You don't need many to get beat to finish in front, and yes they do get beat, as Northerly has shown us, there are no certainties in racing. Did anyone else lay Cuphill the week before??