This ones being doing well lately so just thought I'd recap the rules i.e.:

Take all Beadmans Mounts on Saturdays only (could include big Carnivals I guess)

Week 1 ,bet one unit win on each (Maxi-divi , but Top Fluc when pre-post fav)

if a profit was realised, repeat next week, if no profit then:

Week 2 = 2 units win, then 3,4,and finally 5 units win on each, after that if still no profit accept the situation and revert back to 1 unit win on each again and repeat. Remember revert back to 1 unit win on each after a PROFIT.

Objective is to realise a profit overall, heaps of action, and some fun. I'm not saying that this is to be used a serious money maker, just fun.

Yesterday was particularly good of course as we were up to 4 units win on each, and along comes Absolutelyfabulous & Coalesce!!! boom, boom!

Have you noticed Beadman's pet distances at all?

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Chrome, I would say he is generally most successful at distances 2200 and above but would consider it stretching things a bit to say he had 'pet distances'.

I think any such 'bias' would probably be related more to a track/distance combo rather than a pet distance, but am open to contrary evidence.

You are spot on wonfluova.

Beadman is not just a master jockey, he is a master at rating a horse and gaining position. This skill is honed over distance, you just have to see how he positions horses (differently depending on the horse) to gain full advantage.
While others are flogging the $%^& out of their mounts or attempting to "pinch" it, Beadman waits patiently sneeking closer and pulling his horse to the best position.
He goes when the time is right!
The guy is a freak - a bit like an inbuilt sense.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Interesting, well at least with my plan you would be on EVERY single winner!!

By the way the same way of betting can be ajusted to suit many forms of selections with equal success, eg. say 3rd favs (pre-post) same way of betting week to week.

Beadman has had 28 wins from 116 rides this season [23.52%] to 28th. Sept.
and 2 wins Sat. from 8 rides. Most of his rides are are usually under the odds [because he is Beadman and lots of punters back him] and poor value and are not longshots. Relying on longshots to make a profit could get quite expensive. Especially using progressive staking.

J Parr [a] is on 22.22% with 8w from 36 rides, plus 1 win from 1 ride on Sat.
Robl is on 25%, Lynch 33.33% and Tim Clark [a] is on 16% with 12w from 75 starts which is pretty good for an apprentice considering Boss is only on 12.8% and Rodd, Bowman and Quinn all on even less win %.

Some of these lesser know riders with good success rates would produce better value odds overall than Beadman and they get home longshots too.

[QUOTE=partypooper]

if a profit was realized, repeat next week, if no profit then:

Week 2 = 2 units win, then 3,4,and finally 5 units win on each, after that if still no profit accept the situation and revert back to 1 unit win on each again and repeat. Remember revert back to 1 unit win on each after a PROFIT.
QUOTE]

Party,
Well I'll play Devil's advocate here for a bit.

We all know by now [or should know] if a profit cannot be made at level stakes, progression punting will only create progressively heavier losses.

Beadmans win on Absolutelyfabulious at $2.60 is more like the usual odds he brings home [because everyone and their ****** over-backs him]. One of the problem here of course is this system is trying to make a profit from consistently accepting unders for the majority of it's bets.


Beadman's 28 wins from 116 rides this season would have had to return close to 4/1 average win price to be profitable over that period. Somehow I don't think he averaged anywhere near that from those 28 wins before Sat.. The system seems totally reliant on longshots to show a profit.

Maybe someone out there has the prices of those wins [?]



.

have to agree with crash,you will go broke following that system UNLESS you can eliminate some of his poorer chances that will still be overbet anyway.
Betting progression won't save your butt either.
CP,agreed Daz is the best,but while you are kissing his butt cast your mind back to the day another lockey"pinched it"on Grand Armee!Where was Dazza's"inbuilt sense"that day?Where did he position it in the run(Lohnro)and at what time did he "sneak up?"Imo he is a much better rider of sprinters,or up to a mile.

Over distances of greater than 2200m when Beadman rides a first OR second favourite he has an amazing 35.29% win strike rate, and a 69.12% place strike rate with a win POT of 33.53%

Remember we are not talking favourites only, but first and second favourites combined.

His strike rate is phenomenal!

This includes his failures on Lonhro

Add to this his home tracks only, and I'll kiss his butt in Bourke Street.

....Not really

His strike rate on Sprinters and milers is only just above average, which is why his mounts are so hard to make a profit from - they are overbet in general.

That was a 2000m race he was beaten on Lonhro and it was a margin of 6 lengths, horses don't get beaten 6 lengths because of jockey error unless he sat him 5 wide the entire journey, which of course, Dynamic Darren didn't

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

One thing no one can get away from is, that to follow Beadman a punter is following constant unders.
Aren't we supposed to be looking for overs?


It helps Beadman to have the pick of the best stables and best horses around to ride. Give those rides to Parr, Tim Clark the apprentice or a few other good hoops who are consistently bringing home the bacon [not favorites either] and they would do just as well in SR. Good horses have a lot to do with making good jockeys look a lot better that they really are.

Dittman was the best rider out of Sydney. He could 'lift' a horse over the line. Best hands in the business.