Hi All,

I was reading a few of the recent posts and was greatly interested in the effectiveness of pre-post markets to identify the best chances in a race. I have started trialling a system using the pre-post favourite in two readily available sources and using the top rated horse from two free sets of ratings.

The results so far have been encouraging so I thought I’d give them the greatest test of all and run the gauntlet of the forum curse.

I do not bet on heavy tracks and am considering the same for slow tracks.
I look at all Queensland meetings, all New South Wales and Victorian metro and provincial meetings and the number one Western Australian, South Australian and Tasmanian meeting. (So no Broome tomorrow)

Fingers Crossed

Interim Selections – Saturday July 6th

(I will finalise selections after scratching/track conditions finalised – around 11)
Belm 1 6 Miss Halloween
Belm 3 9 Smoko
Belm 4 7 Malaika
Belm 6 3 Northpace
Belm 7 1 Summah's Touch
Belm 8 15 Terkel
Eag F 2 10 Tiger Jet
Eag F 6 1 Ibicenco
Toow 3 7 Leprechaun Lad
Toow 4 3 Square Up
Seym 1 12 Crotchet
Seym 2 12 Zupacharged
Seym 3 6 Royal Mephisto
Seym 7 14 Oh Susannah
Seym 8 10 Wings Of Success
Seym 9 10 Indexes
Rose 1 1 Bull Point
Rose 7 3 Zaratone
Rose 8 1 Capital Commander
Newc 4 3 Houston
Newc 5 2 Spurlohn
Newc 7 14 Teenager
Newc 9 10 Sergeant At Arms
Newc 10 5 School Of Turin
Morp 1 2 Viking Tiger
Morp 2 3 Kiss Me Ketut
Morp 4 1 Esprit De Bullet
Morp 5 8 Princess Peggy
Morp 6 2 Wise Journey
Mack 2 7 Pascalino
Mack 4 7 Sporting Page
Mack 5 6 Six Of Hearts
Mack 7 1 Prussian Secret
Gold C 1 3 Travieso
Gold C 2 3 Hot Bickies
Gold C 5 3 Westbrook
Gold C 6 11 Anonymiss Kitty
Gold C 7 2 Florida Fellow
Flem 1 1 Lady Lakshmi
Flem 2 1 Ava's Delight
Flem 3 2 Upbeat
Flem 5 3 Riziz

I have left the slow track selections in for now.

Seym 1 12 Crotchet
Flem 1 1 Lady Lakshmi
Newc 3 1 Incubus
Seym 2 12 Zupacharged
Rose 1 1 Bull Point (Slow)
Morp 1 2 Viking Tiger (Slow)
Flem 2 1 Ava's Delight
Newc 4 3 Houston
Eag F 2 10 Tiger Jet (Slow)
Seym 3 6 Royal Mephisto
Mack 2 7 Pascalino
Morp 2 3 Kiss Me Ketut (Slow)
Flem 3 2 Upbeat
Newc 5 2 Spurlohn
Mack 4 7 Sporting Page
Morp 4 1 Esprit De Bullet (Slow)
Belm 1 6 Miss Halloween
Flem 5 3 Riziz
Newc 7 14 Teenager
Mack 5 6 Six Of Hearts
Morp 5 8 Princess Peggy (Slow)
Eag F 6 1 Ibicenco (Slow)
Morp 6 2 Wise Journey (Slow)
Belm 3 9 Smoko
Newc 9 10 Sergeant At Arms
Rose 7 3 Zaratone (Slow)
Mack 7 1 Prussian Secret
Belm 4 7 Malaika
Newc 10 5 School Of Turin
Seym 9 10 Indexes
Rose 8 1 Capital Commander (Slow)
Morp 8 5 Finniss Power (Slow)
Belm 6 3 Northpace
Belm 7 1 Summah's Touch
Toow 3 7 Leprechaun Lad
Belm 8 15 Terkel
Toow 4 3 Square Up

Cheers
Brett

Results – Saturday July 6th

There were 11 selections on Slow or Heavy tracks today for 1 win at $3.1, as such we are leaving wet tracks.

Selections – 26 (Good or Dead Track)
Wins – 10
Win % - 38.5%
Outlay – $26
Return – $30.95
POT – 19%

Seym 1 12 Crotchet Won $1.8
Flem 1 1 Lady Lakshmi np
Newc 3 1 Incubus 3rd
Seym 2 12 Zupacharged 2nd
Flem 2 1 Ava's Delight 2nd
Newc 4 3 Houston Won $1.9
Seym 3 6 Royal Mephisto np
Mack 2 7 Pascalino np
Flem 3 2 Upbeat np
Newc 5 2 Spurlohn 2nd
Mack 4 7 Sporting Page Won $2.4
Belm 1 6 Miss Halloween np
Flem 5 3 Riziz Won $2.5
Newc 7 14 Teenager Won $6.1
Mack 5 6 Six Of Hearts Won $4.5
Belm 3 9 Smoko Won $1.4
Newc 9 10 Sergeant At Arms np
Mack 7 1 Prussian Secret 3rd
Belm 4 7 Malaika 3rd
Newc 10 5 School Of Turin Won $5.5
Seym 9 10 Indexes 3rd
Belm 6 3 Northpace Won $2.9
Belm 7 1 Summah's Touch Won $2.0
Toow 3 7 Leprechaun Lad np
Belm 8 15 Terkel np
Toow 4 3 Square Up np

Giday Brett, nice work with this thread mate. Those 2 sets of free ratings you are using are better suited to a dry track, then?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Thanks LG,

From my experience with the ratings they are a lot more inconsistent on wet tracks. I have used them in other systems and wet tracks have always stumped me with them.

Am still on the look out for a set of ratings that maintain there effectiveness in the wet.

So it'll be dry until something proves me wrong.

Cheers

Brett

Synthetic and Dirt tracks – I am reviewing as to whether these tracks produce inconsistent results similar to slow/heavy tracks as it relates to the ratings I am using. As it stands we have had 2 bets (at Toowoomba) for a 4th beaten 4.3L and a 6th beaten 5.4L. My initial thoughts are that these tracks tend to have ‘specialists’ and horses seem to either grow a leg or lose a leg when comparing their results to turf tracks.
Devo 1 11 Shirizzle 11:30 (Synthetic)
Devo 2 12 Hoop 12:05 (Synthetic)
Morn 2 4 It's Unstoppable 12:35
Devo 3 12 Usain Dancer 12:40 (Synthetic)
Canb 1 1 Hosier Lane 12:45 (Synthetic)
Town 1 7 Pachamama 12:50
Port A 2 5 Lucky Sunday 13:05 (Dirt)
Morn 3 1 Balytska 13:10
Devo 4 5 Wanaea 13:15 (Synthetic)
Port A 3 2 Slippery Ninja 13:40 (Dirt)
Devo 5 6 Miss Middleton 13:50 (Synthetic)
Canb 3 12 Our Penny Girl 13:55 (Synthetic)
Town 3 2 Rhythm 'n' Rap 14:00
Port A 4 1 Sophisticated Lass 14:15 (Dirt)
Morn 5 9 Zaman 14:23
Devo 6 3 Difrent 14:27 (Synthetic)
Canb 4 2 Astronomer 14:31 (Synthetic)
Port A 5 1 Saturday's Child 14:50 (Dirt)
Morn 6 2 Mayan Prophecy 14:58
Devo 7 7 The Welshman 15:04 (Synthetic)
Canb 5 8 Doubtful Miss 15:08 (Synthetic)
Town 5 5 Strato Mostro 15:12
Town 6 2 Jabiru Dreaming 15:50
Port A 7 1 Elldami 16:05 (Dirt)
Kalg 3 1 Bells Victory 16:09
Devo 9 7 Makes Cents 16:17 (Synthetic)
Canb 7 1 Diamondsinthenight 16:21 (Synthetic)
Kalg 4 2 Comanche Kid 16:45
Kalg 5 1 Foo Foo The Snoo 17:40
Kalg 7 6 Holder 18:30

Apologies - I placed the Mornington selections up but it is a Slow 6.

Don't be too concerned with avoiding wet tracks Brett if the track is an improving one, it's the deteriorating wet tracks that I find are the ones that throw up the rough results.

Good luck with your idea.

Only Bet on a Turf Tracks………….

There were 18 selections on synthetic or dirt tracks today for 4 win at $8.3. If we add the 2 from Toowoomba last night that’s 20 selections for a loss of 11.7 units and as such we are only using turf tracks rated good or dead.

Today's Results
Town 1 7 Pachamama Won $3.4
Town 3 2 Rhythm 'n' Rap 2nd
Town 5 5 Strato Mostro Won $1.9
Town 6 2 Jabiru Dreaming 3rd
Kalg 3 1 Bells Victory Won $3.9
Kalg 4 2 Comanche Kid 2nd
Kalg 5 1 Foo Foo The Snoo np
Kalg 7 6 Holder np

Daily Results
Selections – 8
Wins – 3
Win % - 37.5%
Outlay – $8.00
Return – $9.20
POT - 15.0%

Overall Results
Selections – 34
Wins – 13
Win % - 38.2%
Outlay – 34
Return – 40.15
POT - 18.1%

Hi All,

There are only 2 provincial meetings run on turf over the next 2 days and they are at the Sunshine Coast and Kembla Grange. Both would appear to be set to be run on wet tracks so we'll focus on Wednesday.

Cheers

Brett