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#41
12th September 2019, 11:07 PM
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Hugely important weekend of overseas racing. Plenty of candidates are running across Europe and will determine whether they subsequently make the trip to Australia. Greg Carpenter will also be watching closely to ping them with penalties (in the interview linked above he particularly mentioned Il Paradiso as being difficult to handicap due to a lack of races).
The live nominations are causing a few problems with quarantine. It was reported today that Latrobe may be left out in the cold. Last year Lloyd Williams threatened not to bring him unless there was also space for his travel companion Master of Reality. This year he is one of the lower rated horses aiming for the second flight. Ratings of many of the horses may change due to this weekend's results though, just to throw more uncertainty into the mix. Werribee's quarantine facility has space for 32 horses in the first shipment and just 8 in the second. Those on the first shipment (arriving September 28th and able to race from October 12th) have just gone into quarantine in the UK for 2 weeks. As can be seen in the races below, there are far more nominated horses vying in races this weekend than can fit in those 8 remaining spaces. The second shipment go into quarantine in the UK on September 26th, arriving October 12th and able to race from October 26th (Cox Plate Day). Victorian Racing Officials are hanging on Aidan O'Brien determining which of the runners he's nominated he actually brings. There's even a possibility of a third flight being chartered to Sydney with horses being quarantined at Canterbury racecourse, able to race just 3 days before the Cup. Friday 3600m Magners Rose Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (3yo+) @ Doncaster Barsanti @ $26 is up against Stradivarius, Dee Ex Bee and Max Dynamite. Interesting that Dee Ex Bee couldn't nominate for the Melbourne Cup after bleeding in his last run but he's allowed to race again in the UK straight away... Saturday 2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster Il Paradiso @ $7 is third favourite behind Logician and Sir Dragonet. Also in the field are fellow Cup nominees Technician @ $15, Dashing Willoughby @ $17, and Western Australia @ $51. 2400m Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Stivers, Buckhurst, Mount Everest, and Norway are all in the running 2000m QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Hunting Horn and Magic Wand are nominated in this non-qualifying race 2600m Irish Stallion Farms EBF "Petingo" Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Eminence is in this non-qualifying race Sunday 2400m 135th Deutsches St Leger (Group 3) (3yo+) (Turf) @ Dortmund Ispolini is the only Cup contender who nominated for this race but is also in the field for the Irish St. Leger. You'd think he'd go there... 2400m Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Curragh Kew Gardens @ $3.25, Cross Counter @ $4.30, Southern France @ $6.50, Master of Reality @ $9, Latrobe $9, Ispolini @ $13, Twilight Payment @ $13, Western Australia @ $51 There very well may be even more runners in action. I just looked for qualifying races (2400m and above at Group level) and when a couple were scratched I checked what they were up to. 
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#42
12th September 2019, 11:31 PM
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Finally, for today: the first Order of Entry for the Melbourne Cup has been released. Subsequent lists will come out each Monday. Last year you'd find them on this page: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...ture-conditions, but it might be a matter of just keeping an eye on Racing Victoria's twitter: https://twitter.com/racinginsider
Order of Entry: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-12 Of the horses I posted on Tuesday that were weighted less than their official handicap indicated they should be:
YTPFBC = yet to pass first ballot clause So Il Paradiso and Dashing Willoughby look to have conditions that are pretty favourable if they were to come. Nakeeta at #48 last year looks to have been the lowest in the initial Order of Entry to get into the race without subsequently picking up a penalty or winning a ballot exemption. Avilius (Bart Cummings winner), Yucatan (+2.5kg Herbert Power), Runaway (+1.5kg Geelong Cup), and Prince of Arran (Lexus Stakes winner) were all initially lower but won their way into the final field.
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#43
13th September 2019, 07:38 PM
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Eighteen horses have gone into 2 weeks of quarantine in the UK prior to departing for Australia (arriving on September 28th). Thirteen of those are nominated for the Melbourne Cup:
Already in quarantine and arriving on September 24th from Japan is:
Also from Japan and going into quarantine after this weekend (arriving October 1st) are:
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#44
16th September 2019, 11:14 AM
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Local results for Melbourne Cup nominees:
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#45
16th September 2019, 02:58 PM
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Results from overseas nominees:
3600m Magners Rose Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (3yo+) @ Doncaster https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drBjsssBgkU Stradivarius unsurprisingly won this race, jumping at $1.10 following the withdrawal of Dee Ex Bee due to the firm track. Cup nominee Barasanti at $11 was actually second favourite in what became a slowly run race due to small field of five. Finishing in 3rd was two-time Melbourne Cup placegetter, Max Dynamite. Barsanti ran towards the rear, looked to get the distance easily, but struggled to close ground on the three ahead of him. He crossed the line 6.75L behind Stradivarius, carrying 2kg less. Consequently it wasn't a terrible run, given their respective ratings and how the race was not run to suit a backmarker. I'm not sure he showed enough to warrant the journey here - forgetting for the moment that his rating would mean he was in doubt of fitting into Werribee in any case... 2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk Another odds-on favourite took out this race with the undefeated Logician a very impressive $1.80 winner. Four Melbourne Cup nominees featured here - with them finishing in the final four positions in the 8-horse field. Western Australia, the $51 outsider, was sacrificed as pace maker for Aidan O'Brien's runners, hoping to shake the race up. The early speed helped Logician break the track record, now set at 3'00.27s, edging out Masked Marvel's 2011 performance (which in turn broke an 85 year-old mark). In that 2011 race the placegetters were Brown Panther and Sea Moon who would go on to place 8th and 13th in the 2013 Melbourne Cup respectively. Going into the race Logician had a 115 rating. This was only his fifth start and his first at Group 1 level. It'll be hard to judge the performance of the other runners until his official handicap is updated. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up to 118+. Of the Melbourne Cup nominees, Il Paradiso finished highest in 5th position, 5.25L adrift of the winner. He was also rated at 115 - the same as Logician - more or less solely due to his last race over 3270m where he was just 1.35L behind Stradivarius. He was looking great in this race at one point, taking the lead in the straight when his jockey pushed the button. Ultimately it looked like this move came far too early, with him weakening with plenty to go. It looked like he expected more fuel to be in the tank, so I'm not sure if Il Paradiso had a bad day, was impacted by leading the bunch that was tracking Western Australia or - optimistically thinking - he was run to not gain Greg Carpenter's attention. Ultimately he finished 3-4 lengths further back than one would have hoped, but he gets something like 7 lengths back in The Cup due to his favourable handicap. 2400m Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown I couldn't find any vision so here's a blurb from Coolmore regarding Norway (1st), Buckhurst (2nd 1.25L) and Mount Everest (4th 1.75L): Quote:
2000m QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po Magic Wand and Hunting Horn contested this race which won't effect their current ranking or attract any penalties: a good thing too as they're currently at #21 and #22 in the Order. Hunting Horn was the sacrificial pacemaker and finished as badly as his $67 odds would suggest. Magic Wand's $21 price didn't suggest he would be at the pointy end but he finished in the front of a bunch that was chasing winner Magical, 2.25L ahead. This was a really good run. Magical has been running at a consistent 122 rating, chasing Enable for much of the past year. Magic Wand has a 111 rating and ran admirably here at equal weights. After the race her trainer Aidan O'Brien was looking abroad: "She can do the likes of Hong Kong and all those places. She loves fast ground and anywhere from a mile to a mile and a half. She's very versatile." That doesn't sound very encouraging for a Cup tilt, but earlier this month he also said: "She’s in the Cox Plate, the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. I always thought 1m4f was far enough over here in Group 1s but, it’s funny, that type of race can often suit that type of horse. Flemington is a very flat track and you need a horse who is tactically quick enough. It’s a daft thing but it might just suit her". 2600m Irish Stallion Farms EBF "Petingo" Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown Eminence was second favourite in the 17-horse field, starting at $6 and finishing in 8th position and 4 lengths back in this non-qualifying race. Can't find vision but the race notes say: "Chased leaders, 3rd 5f out, ridden 2f out but no extra under pressure from over 1f out and gradually weakened". 2400m 135th Deutsches St Leger (Group 3) (3yo+) (Turf) @ Dortmund https://youtu.be/3LDDt8xDqoQ Ispolini is back on track after a poor run in his last, the Yorkshire Cup against Stradivarius and Southern France. He was towards the top of Melbourne Cup futures betting for a fair while on account of his 2nd to Cross Counter in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year. He was the odds-on favourite in the 13-strong Deutsches St Leger, winning in a very tight finish. He was 20th in the Order of Entry last week and his trainer Charlie Appleby appears buoyed by his run here: "Ispolini probably got to the front a bit too soon but he has stuck to his guns well. It was a pleasing performance and he has hopefully now booked his ticket to Australia for the Melbourne Cup." 2400m Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) (3yo+) @ Curragh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA Starting odds: Cross Counter @ $2.50, Kew Gardens @ $4.50, Southern France @ $10, Master of Reality @ $15, Latrobe $8, Twilight Payment @ $15 The winner was Search For A Song in only her 5th race. She was also weighed 5kg lighter than every other runner. When she took the lead and put on a couple of lengths at the mile marker she just couldn't be run down. Some strong rain before and during the race but it doesn't appear to have largely effected the surface: it was rated Good-to-Firm for this contest and only downgraded to Good in the next (it dried out and was back to a Good-to-Firm by the last race). Kew Gardens ran on for a 2.25L 2nd with the remaining Cup nominees finishing in the next few positions. Southern France, Cross Counter and Master of Reality all finished within 0.25L of each other (1.5 lengths behind Kew Gardens). Latrobe and Twilight Payment were within a further couple of lengths. There seems little hope of Kew Gardens travelling. According to Lloyd Williams there was very little between the other five candidates in the field though: "They finished within two [and a half] lengths of each other, and there is nothing between them in the future. The rides [they got] and the conditions [were] the difference," he said. "Southern France [was] a very good run, a positive [for his Cup chances]. Master of Reality did most of the work [in front] and was a good run. Twilight Payment needed the run and has changed stables. He hadn't started since June." "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey. Improvement is possible." Cross Counter didn't show the blazing finishing speed that attracted me to him last year. He's older and higher in the weights now. He'll certainly need a different change of tactics than those he used in last year's race... On the positive side he was 3-wide for a fair hunk of the race, which wouldn't have helped.
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#46
18th September 2019, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
There's an interesting blog post from the British Handicapping Authority's Matthew Tester regarding the re-rating of Logician and the strength of this race: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/william-hill-st-leger-festival/. He also suggests that Logicians performance could have been as high as a 120, or that he ran as high as a 117 in spite of the conditions and race distance not being his preferred. Per the Race Conditions there's meant to be an updated Order of Entry sent out each Monday. That doesn't seem to have happened. Melbourne Cup nominees racing locally over the next few days:
The following Cup nominees trialled yesterday: BLUE BREEZE (NZ) BONDEIGER DIVANATION LADY YOUNG SUPERNOVA (GB) WALL OF FIRE (IRE)
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#47
20th September 2019, 12:29 PM
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The nominees are getting whittled away:
Django Freeman - out for the spring with bone chips (was 10th in the Order of Entry) Meiner Wunsch - isn't coming from Japan after reviewing where they sat in the Order of Entry (yet to pass the first ballot clause and would be in the 60s unless they picked up a penalty). In addition to the nominees racing this weekend listed in the previous post, on Sunday there's also:
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#48
23rd September 2019, 02:10 AM
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Results from the past few days:
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#49
23rd September 2019, 06:56 AM
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walkermac,
I'm looking forward to the Melbourne cup analysis again this year as it gets closer to the final field. This thread always has the best analysis I can find anywhere. Thanks for all your hard work.
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#50
23rd September 2019, 09:58 AM
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Hey walkermac,
I second what UB has said. Whilst we may not often reply to this thread its usually because you have great information and there's nothing constructive I can really add. As the field get whittled down some more I may add some bits and pieces but so far I'm more than happy to take in the information as an onlooker. Appreciate your efforts!
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