Did better than 28c on the 6th at Tatura --- but missed a couple (too high a price when I tried to lay my bet e.g. Danisker); and was in too much of a hurry when trying to lay Mindmaster --- and backed it instead!! Still way in front. Congrats on your efforts.


Of course, we have to bear in mind what Maria says over and over again on her thread --- there will be bad days.

Went through nearly half of her thread last night (no wonder I was muddled backing Mindmaster) --- was almost gaga at the end; but it was significant that her bank was only up 40% after 103 days --- 3 months! Yet it went on to be up 3000%, or whatever, in a year!

Merriguy

I'm hoping to average only 1% per day, which at the end of the year gives a healthy profit. Way ahead of that so far!

Mark,

On the B/F Forum a few days ago one guy said that he lays every favourite every night (English, I guess), to lose 100 pounds, on the US races. He lays them all at whatever price to lose 100.

Doing this he made 4% first year, 8% last year. This year he is down 0.5% --- but he is not worried as there is still a long way to go. Incidentally, that -0.5% is 2000 pounds down!!!

His worst night, he claims, was when 26/40 won! "Not nice but that's the game" was his comment. To balance that he claims to be going to N.Y. this Friday --- with his 'missis' --- 'our fourth trip this year'!

Makes your aim of 1% not too bad if you can believe what he has said.

Day 3
Bank $2153.77
Bets $21.53, $12.92 & $8.61

Launceston
R1 7 GEORGIA STAR
R2 2 MISTY CROWN
R3 3 FULL VELOCITY
R4 6 TIBOOBURRA TRAVIS
R5 1 AFFAIR DE JOUR
R8 4 APRILIA
R9 1 ONE WAY TRAFFIC
R10 6 DEBACLE

Eagle Farm
R1 5 VAL DE LA DIVA
R2 8 FLYING SILVER
R3 9 MR MOJITO
R4 9 DUSTY TAAN
R5 10 SHEWHOMUSTBEOBEYED
R6 7 POWER CITY
R7 3 NATIONAL FOREST

Randwick
R1 7 REIBY REFRAIN
R2 4 NAVAHO TRAIL
R3 3 ROLL OVER ROVER
R4 8 NOW NOW
R5 3 SWEED
R6 7 COLOURFUL MOMENTS

Werribee
R2 2 PERFECT RULE
R3 7 LADY MAMBO **
R5 10 PASS THE BUBBLY
R6 3 TILL TIME

Gawler
R1 2 L'ARTISTE
R2 7 PRINCE DANZATORE
R3 4 STAND YOUR GROUND
R4 2 POSITIVE ACTION
R5 5 DON'T TELL KEL
R6 3 SYMMETRICAL STAR
R7 6 SHAMANIC

Queanbeyan
R1 2 DANCING DRAMA
R2 3 TREPEZANOV
R3 5 JUSTA PRETENDER
R4 1 BREZINA
R5 2 THE BOXER
R6 7 PINEY CREEK
R7 1 BOSSY MATILDA


** Only lay if in the first 2 in the market.
Seems silly to lay my 3rd pick in a 5 horse race if it's 3rd fav or worse.

hear what your saying mark, but after all isint the aim to lay your selection within your price range parameters if possible? so if one has a guide, be it rough or not, as to the nags likely price range, im not too sure what the problem with a nag blowing or firming is, your only getting caught if it wins, which is no different from any of the other bets your making.

Stugots

I'm with Mark. I've had my pants pulled down too many times by laying too early, only to watch the "private information" money come in at the last minute. I lay to prices but I know others have more info than me. My prices are a rough guide and if my selection shortens too much from my assessed price I walk away.

Hope to work on automating this with the Betfair API.

Pixie

Win or lose stugots, if a horse is 6 into 5/2, what price would you like to lay it at? The same goes for a horse that's 6 out to 12. Laying at the right price gives you options, and it's a risk reward thing. Plus I just hate betting blind. I never bet on the tote for the same reason.

Speaking of the tote, I didn't lay the selection in the first at Launceston. 12 on Betfair but 3.30 fav on Unitab. The poor saps that backed it wouldn't have a clue.

Merriguy

Can you put this down to anything? Did her strike rate improve? Was she getting better prices?

Pix

fair enough mark & angryp, & i tend to agree with u both.

i often lay in early at what i percieve to be an unders price but then bet back out to reduce potential losses if i start to get that 'bad feeling' abt my ever shortening nag. not a regular occurance but one of the reasons bf is somewhat of a revelation, to me at least, the ability to get out of unexpected trouble.

Very similar to what I'm doing Merriguy, but the key is the price he gets on those favourites, and I have a price cut off, because the higher the price gets, the less likely I can judge it's true price and the more exposure.

I think I bet the same same night that 26/40 happened!

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