Anyone,

I have recently started looking at some dutch book type of betting systems where you take 2-4 horses in a race depending on size.

I am sure there are people out there who have been/are using this type of betting successfully.

Does anyone have any good suggestions regarding this form of betting ?

Essentially the way I am doing it at the moment is doing the form on a race and working out which races have only 2-4 horses with a good chance. I then stake these accordingly to win.

What percentage of the field should I dutch ? For example its no good betting on 4 horses in a 6 horse race as you can't dutch it very well. If anyone has any suggestions it would be appreciated. At the moment I am using approx 15-30% of the field. For example 1-2 horses up to 7 horse fields, 2-3 for 8-10 horse fields and 3-4 in anything greater than 10 horses.

Thanks

I would recommend only dutching horses that are value. The more horses you take, the less value you are getting across the board increasing your chance of losing in the long run.
Also I would suggest taking a % of the market as opposed to number of runners.
Taking 3 horses when 1 is showing $1.2 is completely different to taking 3 horses all showing $10.

BJ,

What do you mean by percentage of market ? I assume you means the chance of it winning according to the odds ?

Thanks

Hi, I am a place bettor and don't do dutching, but here is what I do, and it works excedingly well, it may work for you too instead of dutching.
I select the horse paying the highest place divi above or = $2.00 from my first four selections. That's it. I could go for the win also but I am more comfortable with place (I put a few bucks on for win as well but not in a true each way fashion).
If you are worried about a short priced fav., Don't! Just look at Canberra race one and two today. both winners were only my second selections and actually won despite the short fav. It happens often enough I can assure you.
I think by dutching you always finish up with short odds.
I'm sure the devotees of dutching will disagree.
Good luck!

Basically.
The example I gave was
3 $10 horses (representing 30% of the market)
versus
a $1.2 horse and 2 others. ($1.2 represents about 85% of the market.) Add 2 $10 horses onto that and you are betting your 3 horses, but betting into a 105% market already. Guaranteed to lose.

A tab market is ~117%. Say there is 10 horses. You can take the first 8 horses in betting.
You have bet on 80% of the field.
But
Chances are you have bet to about 110% market.

I basically always convert prices to chances of winning. On average, this works fine. Although obviously you have individual horses being well over/under rated.

Try the following which should be of some assistance:

http://twonix.com/index.php?option=...id=28&Itemid=44

Try the win bet. If 2 of value back both. dutch betting has an inbuilt problem with odds to win ratio [averages on your wins] in the real world of punting. It's theory sound wonderful, but isn't. Bit like trying to win on odds-on selections, which often your total dutch bet is [odds-on].

Hi Wismip,
I have always been interested in the concept of Dutch betting & feel the most profitable way to approach it is to target races with 9-12 runners only & target 2 horses a race only, with a fixed amount being bet each race e.g. say $50 a race, the amount on each horse would be staggered depending on the price of the horse e.g. $34 on a 2/1 shot & $17 on a 5/1 shot.

This way , one has a chance to recover some losses more quickly if one has a good run & one is minimising the frustration of odds on value ,which often comes about when one is taking 3-4 horses a race.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Always remember that Dutch betting is a method of staking and NOT a method of selecting!! Basically what I am saying is if your selections are poor then Dutching will not save you.If you choose your races carefully( I prefer good class races with the fav at 2 or 3/1)then it is quite possible to make money by either

a) betting to win a certain amount per race

b) betting a certain amount per race,as suggested by Baghwan

The first step you MUST TAKE is to convert your selections odds to percentages.

If anyone is interested we can take this further

cheers

So, you want to step outside eh jonron?




Seriously, you make some good points. Also dutching erodes your overlays unless you can get a reasonable price. Try sticking to races where you'd actually think of laying the favourite, then you keep things easier with plenty of room to move.

If you can only make 20% of your invested amount per race, you must have a very high strike rate to make a profit overall.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg