Not necessarily, the assumption is that he'd still be winning after commission were paid on every single winning bet, not just net profit.



The dilemma being -
a) longer odds on Betfair do not necessarily equate to better value, in fact all studies reflect that Betfair prices are a better indicator.
b) You're assuming that a profit on Betfair is equal to a loss on the tote.



Really?

I just don't agree that paying 17% on everything is the same as paying 24% and up to 50% on everything.

By default, Betfair's biggest mistake with the premium charge was not in implementing it, but rather opening some punters eyes as to how much commission they were really paying.
It's not 5%, never has been 5% for most punters.

Traders, arbers, book makers yes, punters - no.

This is exactly why some punters cannot believe they still aren't winning when 12% better off.
There are heaps of systems that are close to breakeven at tab prices, yet with another 12% they are still losing.
Surely it is money for jam??

Nope.

I see what your point is however, that if you are getting better odds after commission, that you are better off regardless of commission.
That's true in theory, in practice it's quite different.
Money is a far better indicator on betfair.

I know a couple of people who are currently doing extremely well looking for horses that are below TAB prices on Betfair, and taking bookies odds.

But your point is noted.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Originally posted by Stebbo - "I suppose what I'm trying to say is that if that selection was a true 50% chance, then the 5% commission (net $1.95) is far LESS significant than a tote takeout of 17% which would show that selection at something like $1.85."


It should be noted that TAB's Commission on Win Pools in Australia are on average 14.5% and not 17%.

A "true even money chance" on a TAB pays $1.70 not the $1.85 Stebbo has stated.

If the TAB were betting on Two-Up and I had a $1 on heads and Stebbo had a $1 on tails then the pool is $2, the TAB take 14.5% commission (29c) and the winner collects $1.71, recuced to $1.70 after rounding.

I have a program that totals the TAB divs percentage for the whole field with a percentage total at the bottom.

It always comes to 18.5% on UniTAB because of the rounding down.

That is a big difference to the 14.5% the TABs state that they load it at.

They try to not tell the truth where ever they can & wish to stop others if they dare to make a better offer.e.g. Betfair.

I compare TAB prices all the time with Betfair & for the life of me , I can not see why any serious punter would line up to take the consistantly terrible fluctuating prices.

One would not want to do Dutching with the TABs
One could get seriously burnt with the ever fluctuating prices even after they jump.

One would not not wish to be betting to price either.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan, it can't always come to 18.5%. You might be confusing Market Percentage with the Commission and even Market Percentages vary.

TAB Win Market Percentages (at 14.5% commission) will vary from 117% to 119% depending on the effect of rounding, the total commission deducted including the rounding component will vary from 14.5% to say 19% if a $2.09 (rounding down to the $2.00 divi adds another 4.5%).
You cannot work out what the total commission is on the TAB's after rounding because we don't know the actual dollar amounts invested on each runner, but a guess is that rounding adds another 1.5% commission to win markets and more to place markets because of the lower dividends and greater affect of rounding.

The VFG real time odds has the percentages at the botton of each betting pool take a look to see what the amounts are, i will i will list a random race from yesterday.

Gosford Race 7
Betfair 100.49%
Stab 119.37%
NSW 118.47%
QLD 117.35%

How is the VFG Real Time Odds accessed?

Regards

virtualformguide.com/cgi-bin/tvf/access.pl

On the right hand side drop down box select RTO for the race you want.

Further to the fanciful notion that this charge is somehow good, because it will be easier to win once the big winners have moved elsewhere.

In contrast to normal winners, these big ones will typically find it very easy to evade the Premium Charge.

If you open an account in your spouse's name, the Betfair will treat the 2 accounts as linked.

BUt the leviathans with their staff and extensive international contacts can easily find ways of opening other accounts that cannot be linked back to them.

Presumably until now they used a sole account to maximise bonus points and minimise commission.

So they'll beat the charges while other regular winners will have to bear the brunt.

How on earth can such a situation be good for mainstream punters?

As others throughout this thread have said, I cant get my head around this Premium charge, but thought I'd bump this to see how it all panned out? Have many people been charged with this? Or is it something that very few people have been stung with?