The most important factor in racing is weight and class combined. Can the horse carry the allotted weight, in this class of race, better than the opposition can do theirs.
2ndly can it do it over the distance. Some attention should be paid to stats at course and distance but only to look for descrepancies. ie Either exceptionally good or exceptionally bad records which defy explanation.
3rdly - consistency - go to inracing.com.au and buy this book for $2.20 (normally $15) it will be the best value for money buy you ever make.
4thly - Barriers and jockeys - they do matter but NO combination is so bad that it will prevent a superior beast from winning, however you must allow for likely bad luck or errors in your priceline.
Finally - the X-factor - secret!

thanks for your imput Mr Key. Weight and class are the two factors I tend to overlook - which could explain my current strike rate!

How do I go about assessing weight and class combined? How does one answer that question: can this horse carry that weight in this class race better than the others their weight?


I've overlooked it because it is not easy to extract from the form guide like, say, Average prizewinnings where the calculation is done for you or, say, win conversion rate, where the calculation is fairly simple. I used to put a lot of store in weight as a factor, but I've seen so many horses overcome their weight disadvantage I've stopped looking at it. But, as you say, it needs to be considered with class.

Class is a mystery to me. OK, there are dfifferent class races. Horses come up or down in class. I'm a novice at the finer points of this. How do I begin to assess class in a more meaningful way than looking at the U's or D's in the "class" column of the form guide?

Any advice gratefully accepted.

Hermes

$$$ won tells you if the horse can handle the class. You don't win big money from winning a few low class races.

As for weight - as long as its not rising too much from last start, the weights ok.

Hermes,
I don't claim to be an expert. I just try to learn all the time. I assume from your comments you buy a proper formguide, possibly Sportsman?

For my weight and class measures I buy the Wizard. Saves hours of work. Unfortunately this only comes as a paper for Saturdays but you can get it on the net from inracing but the top quality guide is $11/meeting. Seen as I hardly bet midweek, but take note of results, this doesn't worry me.

With regard to $$$ unless you know when this money was won it doesn't mean much. Average Prizemoney is a better guide but can easily be distorted by big wins early in a career.

One factor I neglected to mention in my previous post was fitness. If it ain't fit it won't win. This does not mean horses can not win 1st-up or after more than 21 days break- you need to look at the individual!

Here's a very rough guide. I don't know all the categories.

Maidens
Class A-D i think?
Class 1-6
Open Handicaps
Metro races such as Restricted Metro Wins 0,1,2,3(3yo+, 4yo+; f&m, C&G); Various 2yos races, Welters, Flying, Quality, listed.

Then you have group 3 thru to group 1

But $$/race gives you a good idea anyway.