10th January 2007, 12:09 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tailwag
I just had a thought (interesting and dangerous) about what would be useful information from Betfair. Working on the averages model rather than the last price taken, it would be useful to know the number of unique bets i.e. that is the number of people who bet, not the total number of bets.
A large punter (in terms of volume) with the wrong opinion in a race can cause the sentiment in the race to be significantly altered. However by knowing the total number of unique punters who are laying as opposed to backing, you can then work out a true weighted average by 'Interest' as opposed to a straighout numeric figure.
In reality what matters is not the size of a persons bet, but whether or not they are correct (win or lose), so knowing the true level of that sentiment regarding any individual horse is paramount, but lost to us because that information is not displayed, but it is obviously known.
Do you think Betfair would ever give that sort of 'Advantage' to us - normal punters? it would make their tool very usable and significantly better than their flawed current model.
Comments?
Tailwag.
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I understand that Betfair does a have a facility for indicating market action by (anonymous coded) user, but that is only available to on-course Stewards.
However Betfair's public Market Information screen does provide a good insight into movements.
If I saw a single $2,000 bet crush the price from $10 to $3 I'd probably dismiss that as the actions of an opulent fool.
But if I instead saw a number of significant bets which did not firm the price, that would be consistent with the modus operandi of an astute informed player.
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