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#42
24th August 2005, 11:27 AM
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Dr, The AVERAGE premium could not be 7c on odds-on horses place betting. Perhaps you've experienced this a few times and it stuck with you, but as an AVERAGE it's impossible. Otherwise I'll give up and punt full-time as you could win backing all odds on favourites for a place with one filter only. And one cannot. I'm not questioning the accuracy of the record keeping, I'm questioning the conclusions drawn and the worth and practicality of using SP combined with TAB win/place, it does not make sense to combine the two and draw conclusions, it's apples and oranges. As for your last statement, you do not realise that every record has been run through both a mechanical and manual data check. In fact I made people aware of errors in the formguide and data in your program - after checking, they agreed. Go and check it out for yourself! I won't comment further on my product's accuracy or other products in general - mine speaks for itself.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg 
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#43
24th August 2005, 11:38 AM
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Sure crash, Theres no point in fibbing  Less than 10 runners, favourites. FAST - Avg $2.40 GOOD - Avg $2.41 DEAD - Avg $2.45 SLOW - Avg $2.53 HEAVY - Avg $2.71 
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#45
24th August 2005, 11:55 AM
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I think we are talking apples and oranges. You are citing favourites ie the public's opinion. Invariably a different favourite will jump up for each track condition due to the public assessing the track condition. On a bright sunny day at Caufield on a track rated fast horse #1 may be the fav. Suddenly the sprinklers all come on and flood the track and the track is downgraded to heavy. The public makes an assessment and #8 the proven mud runner gets the guernsey. Is it me i can't see the point. Beton
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#46
24th August 2005, 12:12 PM
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Hi Beton, The point was that just because a track is rated heavy, it's no reason not to punt. The strike rate is better than dead/slow and better than slow with less than 10 runners, and the prices are better. Of course, one has to follow the crowd's money though and apply your own filters.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#47
24th August 2005, 09:51 PM
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Chrome still muddled
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If the average premium could not be 7c, then what is it? You do not know - but nonetheless your absolutely certain it's not 7c. For goodness sake don't give up the day job for the punt lest the truth hits you between the ears. Now what about the numbers for non-metro tracks? Or doesn't you data cover non-metro tracks?? Leaves us plenty of time for our day job then. ....
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#48
24th August 2005, 10:05 PM
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Dr,
Please explain exactly how you arrived at 7c. BTW: I can supply data for non metro tracks, just in SP format which has nothing to do with this.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 24th August 2005 at 10:25 PM.
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#49
24th August 2005, 10:42 PM
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I think a minor point is being missed with the HEAVY, SLOW scenario.
Let's say the meeting is Saturday and Friday it's a bright sunny day, we are all doing the form. Track Condition: Good Let's say by Friday night, the fav is horse 1 paying 1.50 and we are ready to back it to the hilt. ( it's a true fav by the way) Friday 11.30 PM, the weather changes and there is a sudden down pour of rain, by 6.00 AM Saturday, Track Condition : Slow/Heavy. Trainer scratches the 1.50 favourite. New "favourite" is horse 2 It's price is 2.50. The question is, does the database (anyone's) take into account the scratched true fav. from Friday's form, or is the "fav" that whatever it is on the day regardless if the first fav. was scratched ?
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#50
24th August 2005, 10:47 PM
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My database always uses the favourite at the jump. The scratched favourite is treated the same as any other runner, simply a non-runner. There is no consideration for what went on pre-post.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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