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#181
10th July 2012, 06:32 PM
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Seems everyone is a Winner on this Forum , but not a single one member has posted a winning selection
 EXCEPT ME. I'm posting Lots of Winners , but I'm still Losing. This Forum is rapidly turning into FantasyLand if it wasn't already. 
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#182
10th July 2012, 06:34 PM
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Mooee,
You obviously havent been reading the threads. Last edited by darkydog2002 : 10th July 2012 at 06:37 PM.
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#183
10th July 2012, 06:39 PM
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Quote:
As I've suggested to you before moeee, you cannot continue to do the same thing and expect different results. You complain a lot about losing yet you don't seem to be receptive to change. You seem to know quite a lot about racing but it looks to me that your stuck in the traditional method of selecting winners, which is fine. But you're swimming with the lemmings and whilst the S/R might be OK the return has to be shared among too many lemmings for you to make a profit. You need to do more research and less complaining. Hope this helps!
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#184
10th July 2012, 06:41 PM
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I'll put money on another being field size. Probably 8 +
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#185
10th July 2012, 06:48 PM
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I've looked at field size, especially with a system that is based on Win% and it only showed a POT when the field size was less than 12. To me this wasn't logical, and it took a while for the penny to drop! There are multiple selections in the bigger fields, especially during the Spring Carnival.
I have a system to cull multiple selections down to one which include selecting horses from QLD, WA SA or NZ and culling the locals, purely based on the premise the "outsiders will be better than fair value. I just don't see field size restrictions as a logical filter, although many do, esp bhagwan.
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#186
10th July 2012, 06:59 PM
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Hi Barny,
Have noticed that the Exacta comes into its own, With fields of 11-12 runners by taking your top pick, Plus remaining runners in top 6-7 Pre-post. Cheers LG
__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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#187
10th July 2012, 08:10 PM
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Quote:
What do you determine as "non-negotiables"? I'd like to see whare your thought pattern is going with this.
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#188
10th July 2012, 08:27 PM
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From reading many of the posts and investing some big hours into different rating strategies I've come up with a few things to consider
1. Determine your base value for a horse - How can one measure the success of a horse in a race without consideration to this. For example last start win has no bearing what so ever unless you can adjust his base to the current race day conditions. This adjustment to the race day needs to include throughts around Barrier Trials- When reviewing the replays, look at the run in 200m or 400m or 600m sections. Trainers have a tendency to send the runner out to do a specific piece of work and then will ease down, the trial will show it finishes 7th but in fact very happy with the run. Trackwork - Generally light work in the early parts of hte week and then increasing around Thursday. Look for horses around 12 sec per 200m or better. They are fit. Develop a good Par Times theory - All tracks are different and variations need to apply through condition and rail changes. Just a simple example. Over a 1400m race at Kembla Grange on a good I have seen a Par value time of 82.12. Bunbury same distance and condition is 84.78 So if horse A runs 82.50 at Kembla vs 84.20 at Bunbury which is better??? Of course things need adjusting Velocity ratings - Comparing sectionals from the early marks through the 600 / 400 / 200 can give a clue on how quick the pace was and how good the backrunners really were. Position in Running - Need to calculate which horses have early pace based on the distance today. Strength of the Race - Different classes different days need to be considered. Price - The big factor. Once you have a base rating and then can make the adjustments to the horses rating by these factors Happy days!
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#189
11th July 2012, 01:04 AM
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Quote:
Barny Best advice that I could give you or anybody. The basic rules are in the first post. This anyone could read quicker than writing a post to ask what it is about. If you are serious about punting then you must read the entire thread which is a tutorial on how to punt. Nobody could summarize it and do it justice. Read it and then judge my post. GaryF took the time and effort to contribute something that is worth reading in its entirity. AND TO GET FULL VALUE ONE SHOULD READ AND STUDY IT IN IT"S ENTIRITY. To give you a summary would be shortchanging you, GaryF and every other contributor. I offer my thanks to GaryF again because he showed what the forum is about Learning and giving back. Beton
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