A nomination for 'Classic Posts'.

Beton.

While I agree with nearly everything you have said in this post and and all the others . I thank you for taking the time to explain your thinking.

However, in my view Mr Paretto never said that quote, or, to my knowledge, which is not very great he didn't.

Mr. Paretto was an economist, I called him a matamatician in an earlier thread and his claim to fame lie in the fact that it was he when studying the wealth distribution of England that the approx 80% of the wealth was in the hands of 20%

He did further research to see if this was repeated elsewhere which he found at the time it was. Now Paretto was mainly enter the Economic theory and because he was not very good at explaining the principal it was not taken seriously.

Others, picked up on it to see if the results affected otherthings in business and life.

Then in the fifties it became in vogue again and others put their spin on it.

eg. The Principal of Imbalance


------------- ---------------- ------------------- ------------

One researcher has this to say.

The main tenants of the Paretto theory are:

1. The doctrine of the Vital Few and trivial many

2. There are only a few things that ever produce important results

3. When something is working well, double or triple your bets. You may not know why its working well, but push as hard as you can while the forces of the universe are bending your way.

Pretty sure he was not talking about us and racing , but you can guess what he means.

4.Stop thinking 50 / 50

5. Think Skewness, expect 20% to equal 80%. Expect 80% to Equal 20%.

6. Look for the invisable 20% and the subterranean 20%
( Its there.-- Find it )

Unexpected success is one giveaway.

Develop the facility for mentally blocking out the 80%

eg

The easy Answer
The Obvious reality
The conventional wisdom
The prevailing consensus

None of these is what it seems or worth its weight in the basest of base metals.

These 80% are huge blots on the landscape, stopping you seeing the 20% beyond.

Look around these ugly blots, look over them, look beneath them, look through them.

However you do it, do it, ignore them, pretend they do not exist.

Free up your vision for the elusive 20%

Those who ignore the 80/20 Principal are doomed to average returns.

Author: Richard Koch
The 80/20 Principle

------------------------------------------

There you go, he was not talking about racing but some of his terminology might lead you to thinking so.

I am sure their is something in there for us all, even if it is only 20%.

No need to do my new thread on it now, it may as well die here.

Star

Sorry Star.
I should have said IMPLIED.
We are talking here of punting and how the paretto principle can be applied to horse racing. The Privateer in his mind applied the principle to his system of selecting his bets. He kept the vital few filters and binned the trivial many. Which is not 20/80. You keep the filters that give you the most improvement in return. You take the filters that negate your return and bin them. You take the filters that have some improvement on your return and assess them as follows. Do they assist with the best filters? Are they necessary to obtain the best filters? Or are they passive? If they are passive and do not help the main filters perform better then they get binned as well. Now the Privateer has done this. One question is "Has he done it correctly and successfully?" Another is "Can it be improved?" It may well be because he did it without the use of a computer. Which leads to two other questions. “Can we produce a better result?” and “Has the matrix changed?”

In the interim I am looking to see how my interpretation of his rules fair. Strictly on Saturdays and Metro midweek and a little relaxed weekdays all venues.
Today there are two relaxed selections Geelong 8 #3 and Wyong 7 #4
Tomorrow there are 4 strict selections MR6 #7, MR7 #4, SR3 #6 and SR6 #7. There are also another 18 shortlisted most which only just did not qualify. I will see if there is any value there.
Time will tell
Beton

I like your work! Beton,

I think we have a bit in common, I am doing all this for fun and to see where it goes.

I have done a lot of research work in business and have decided to see if any of that work has a place in racing. The basics of the Paretto Principle interests me, whether the matrix has changed is another matter.

Their are other research info I have got and hopefully that can be applied also. My main aim is to get out of the way of the mob, the trivial many and concentrate on the vital few.

See, thats the thinking behind the 80/20 not the actual numbers as you have recognised but the organised imbalance in nearly everything. Having said that it is still important to know as much as possible about a subject otherwise we will not be able to detect the vital few only what we know.

Here is an old Research Saying that one famous idenity obviously knew and he used it to explain a delicate situation he and the country were in. Only problem was that, time, the great truth teller, proved that he did not know as many knowns as he thought.

There are known knowns, These are things we know we know,

There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we know we don't know.

But there are also unknown unknowns. These are the things we don't know we don't know.

Please remember, everything I write is written with racing in mind, we just have to see how relevant it is. I do not want to go down the dusty track where others have gone before.

I have a lot of sayings and verses that remind me not to follow the herd to closely if it can be avoided. I try to be different, doesn't work often enough, but it suits my personality. I have never applied it to racing though, so we will see where this journey takes me.

It"s also a refresher course in life and business to remind me not to get stale and look at the obvious,I am trying to be different and see what others cannot. Trying to be a trend setter or early adopter and not a laggard.

Star





Star

There are also the things that you think you know but you only know a portion off. There are things you should know and there are things you are better off not knowing. There are a lot of things that are a complete waste of time knowing.

The biggest problem with gaining knowledge is how most gain it. Most learn and research in order to implement something. All theory and no experience and usually nothing gets implemented. The commitment gets tangled with getting all the facts and nothing gets started.

You are better to work out where you want to go, how you want to get there, find out enough to get started in that method and START. Take safe steps and learn on the way. You don't know everything but nobody knows all, everyday you learn more either in a good way or by trial and error. But you are DOING whereas most are GONNA. Beton

Great advice Beton, put simply and succinctly!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Wyong Track heavy would not qualify

Geelong 8 #3 (Unplaced )and Wyong 7 #4 (heavy no bet)
Tomorrow there are 4 strict selections MR6 #7 (3rd but no bet Heavy) , MR7 #4 (2nd But no bet heavy), SR3 #6 (scratched) and SR6 #7 (unplaced). There are also another 18 shortlisted most which only just did not qualify. I will see if there is any value there. (Of the 18, 16 have been run (2 Perth races) we have 4 1st, 5 placed and 7 unplaced. )
I like.

Today we have 3 clear picks for the Paretto system adapted for weekdays to trial, Townsville R4#5, R8#2 & R10#1, Two almost made it R7#4 and R9#4. Bet 1x3 EW if >$4. I am posting these to keep the waters clear. It was a Saturday only method. We will see if it will work midweek. Suitable races are hard to find.

Gee, it has been a long time since I graced this forum...

It's been really interesting to read about the Pareto Principle and how one tries to minimise their form analysis into a few pearls of statistical wisdom.

I was around and in contact with Privateer at the time of his postings and can remember what his base system was then. I also know that over time he did modify the system as he found some statistics became more meaningful than others.

I won't fully disclose the system out of respect for another punter but for what it is worth the statistics in the base system covered:

1. Average Prizemoney
2. Last Start Finish Position
3. Sportsman's Zipform Ratings
4. Career Place Percentage
5. Pre Post Price Range
6. Barrier
7. Career Starts
8. Weight Change from last start

As some of you have found through your investigations, Privateer has a simple punting strategy of 1 x win, 3 x place. You could consider him a professional place bettor.

And, finally his most sage piece of advice was to never, ever bet on a track worse than dead.

Enjoy putting the jigsaw together and thanks again for the thread of reminiscence...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

__________________
Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.