Thank you for your post Luckyboy. I am of the belief that the system has legs. I was of the belief that I had the system covered but your list throws some concern as throws up some items that I thought were considered and dismissed. Beton

beton,

I wouldn't be too concerned as I know Privateer did modify his system from this base over time.

I did likewise as I found a couple of the statistics were not as consistent as some others.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

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Luckyboy
Just going through your list with my comments in brackets.
1. Average Prizemoney (I have this clear)
2. Last Start Finish Position (I have this clear as with the 2LS)
3. Sportsman's Zipform Ratings (See below)
4. Career Place Percentage (I have this clear)
5. Pre Post Price Range (I have this clear)
6. Barrier (There was mention of this but other posts dismissed it)
7. Career Starts ( See below)
8. Weight Change from last start ( there was a mention of this and I keep an eye on it but have not included because it seemed to be dismissed)

Item 3 I have not picked up anything regarding this at all, however he does mention saddlecloth number.
Item 7 Again I have not seen this point at all, again this may be because of his rule on saddlecloth numbers.

I ended up with 13 rules which were more than Privateer's number, however some of the rules such as venue, day of week and price may well be givens.

Again I will not post the rules as the privateer said on many occasions that he did not want them posted. I simply went and read his material.

If you wish to enlighten me more my email is whughes at salternas dot com dot au. Thanks Beton

Townsville R4#5 (unpl), R8#2 (unpl) & R10#1 ( 1st no bet <$4), Two almost made it R7#4 and R9#4 Both unplaced) . Not a good day but I will keep in there.
Luckyboy I sent you an email that bounced back and then I resent it. Pls confirm or I will try again. Beton

He had originally mentioned barriers 1-7 but later dismissive of them. Thanks Barny for the post.

This is the hurdle with trying to work out barrier impact.
As a group it doesn't have as much impact as other filters, but it certainly does at certain tracks over certain distances.
I think it's the 1600m start at Caulfield, there is a rise before a tight turn and any horse stuck out wide has to travel three times the distance as a railer.
Wide barriers are a huge disadvantage.
There are many individual cases where the barrier draw is crucial, but as a group it doesn't make much impact because it evens out.

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This is stats Sydney Metro <$10 circa 2004 which only confirms that barriers do not matter with quality horses. When you add all horses it halves the strike rate. The spike in the ROI on the outer B10+ can only be from odds.
Barrier Wins Starts StrikeRate ROI
1 230 1262 18.23% 88.75%
2 241 1291 18.67% 80.70%
3 256 1306 19.60% 87.43%
4 241 1301 18.52% 82.98%
5 237 1253 18.91% 85.17%
6 204 1189 17.16% 79.99%
7 194 1125 17.24% 82.14%
8 158 948 16.67% 81.81%
9 143 820 17.44% 89.07%
10 108 567 19.05% 101.99%
11 65 378 17.20% 92.99%
12 46 249 18.47% 110.29%
13 22 111 19.82% 121.74%
14 7 65 10.77% 68.46%
15 4 13 30.77% 209.62%
16 2 12 16.67% 112.50%
17 0 3 0.00% 0.00%
18 0 3 0.00% 0.00%

Having said this there is definate bias at tracks at specific distances and rail positions. In UK Racing I read somewhere that you can get a book with all the bias data. Some trainers scratch purely on drawing certain barriers. From memory some tracks were the outer, others the inner and some had the middle barriers. Beton

I've followed Privateer's selection method with a great deal of interest, and for the life of me I cannot see how it can produce a profit.

Hi Barny,

My tip would be that he uses these factors along with extensive racing knowledge to seek high quality value selections.

The key to his approach is the discipline to bet only once a week when the conditions are perfect and most predictable.

Before you go on about predictability and how perfect the market is, remember favourites only win 30% of the time and LOSE 70% of the time. There's money/margins to be had.

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