Best of luck Beton!

Looks like Flemington and Perth would be the place to invest with Dead and Good tracks respectively.

Question: Does anyone recall Privateer's thoughts regarding the straight track at Flemington? I'd imagine he wouldn't be the biggest fan being such a disciplined investor and the variables it can provide at times.

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi Beton,

Don't be discouraged by yesterday's results, a few points I noted:

1/ Be wary of horses having their first go on the straight track, unless you can secure massive overs (at least 3 points over your assessed price)

2/ Resumers - I noted two resumers yesterday, both without a trial or any means of gaging fitness levels.

3/ 3yo races - I find the form often unreliable as some horses don't hold form as well and others improve dramatically run to run.

This is probably all stuff that you know, however I thought I'd throw in a few things I noticed that might improve your systematic approach.

Best of luck!!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

G'day fellas (and any ladies that may be posting or reading!)

Yep, I'm still breathing AND still having a bet. Not in the amounts as I was previously but still ticking along well. I've spent a fair bit of time in China over the past few years. My wife is Chinese and a doctor, she was tempted back there to work on a lucrative contract. Now we're back in Oz (Brisbane) and she has diversified into another field with great success.

I must say it was great to see posts from some of my old mates like Wise One and Luckyboy. Darky and Moeee - nothing changes does it?

I'm not going to re-hash what has already been written throughout the thread and nowadays I don't have the time to devote to the site to be able to reply as often as I'd like so:

*Wet track means slow and heavy.
*Check pre post betting market in Friday's paper...look at those $11 and
under
*Bet on quality races only! This usually means Saturdays. It certainly does
not mean midweek handicaps at places like Wyong.
*Average prizemoney - look at the top 5 average earnings. (TIP: Use the average prizemoney earnings to establish the quality of a race. Set yourself a bottom limit. I do)
* Trackwork and barrier trial results are gold. The Spotsman is my bible for those. The key to trackwork though is not the overall time recorded for a distance, rather the speed of the sectionals.

Some posters are quite correct. For any method (I hate the term "system") of punting, your mindset be flexible enough (and tough enough) to change things up or down or add or delete criteria as required. It is impossible to set things in concrete then expect them to be successful over an extended period. My basic method still works although with some variations with the passage of time.

If there are any questions, I'll try to get back to answering them.

Today? I posted Proisir but who knows? I'm not a fan of the Valley.

The Big One: How do they beat Americain and Dunaden? I was taken with Winchester's run in the Caulfield Cup though. Flemington will suit him.

Whatever you do, have fun and punt sensibly.

Cheers

Privateer

Hi Privateer, I read your posts on Pareto many, many times over, it's as if I was in the library sitting next to you. I think I got the gist where you outlined important recurring stats in good fields were a pointer to realistic chances in the race. Pre-Post and Fitness seemed to be your top 2, and I was interested in reading about trackwork and trials .....

Quote "But should mention that my extensive trackwork and trial logs wouldn't fall under the heading of "basic handicapping" and they are the key to this little method."

That sort of shut me out of any further involvement with your method as I simply wouldn't know what to look for. Any further heads up on this topic would be greatly appreciated.

I think the handicapper has already beaten them over the 3200 trip. I'll be laying both to my maximum liability. Americain has been very good to me the last two years firstly as a winner of the Cup and then as a loser last year. I backed Dunaden as my anchor in the trifecta last year ( successfully ) but will be laying him this year.

I was wishing to know if you used the class factor in the sportsmen as to not backing horses dropping in class based on their assessment, I have not done the research but - the 92% is this horses rising in class get beaten.

That should be rising in class not dropping- sorry dont know how i let that pass.

HI Privateer

Good to see you are still around and having a bet. No doubt you are looking forward to next week’s racing.

As for me, I have moved to Perth, and still have a bet most weekends, but due work commitments don’t have the time follow them as closely as I used too.

As always I look forward to reading your postings

Wise One

His Wise One. Hope you are keeping well old mate.

Barny - trackwork is quite subjective. I have been a student for many years and feel I am able to make an assessment of a horses chances based on its work on the track. There are a few do's and don't though:

* Use The Sportsman
* Avoid wet track times
* Don't consider times recorded on dirt or sand (or at Broadmeadow)
* It is not just the overall time I look for. I like a good time but with fast
last 400/600 metres. I base that on the fact that the last 400/600 of
a race is often where it is won. The ability to come home fast is essential.
As an example, Nechita ran 800m in 46.11, last 400 in 21.33 last
Tuesday. Sensational work. She of course won today.

Just before they jump in the next at Flemington, Homuchdoyouloveme and
Miss Marx have both worked very well this week.

Yeah Miss Marx is one I like today

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"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"