I hope I'm not breaking the rules by posting Punter57's Longshot System ... Obviously I wont be commenting on it.

Everyone has probably noticed that most horses are inconsistent, letting you down when they start at 2-1 but coming good six weeks later at 33-1 when you are NOT on them. Anyone who's read me before will know I'm a "no ratings" kinda guy since I believe ratings are (mostly) based on the fallacy that by quantifying everything you will make the outcomes of races more "predictable", the opposite to how they are. Ratings will NOT make horses or race-results CONSISTENT. So here's an easy method to both factor in the surprises AND to get longshots.
I have used this for many years as a "spot play" method alongside a few others (more complicated). It has been extensively (and profitably) used on Saturdays and Major Racedays in a number of countries (in Europe/Asia the big day is usually Sunday). If you wish to give it a go in lower quality races, by all means. I know it to work even in maiden races, but cannot vouch for it LONG TERM in these inferior races. After reading this method, you might care to see yesterday MR6 for a result (ie 1st and 3rd), NR8 3rd and BR5 1st (Unitab). Since this latter is a case of applying the rules to a lower quality race (class 3) I can't vouch for it LONG TERM. OK, here goes.

Rule 1) In Open races and higher, including Open 3yo (even if split into separate sexes) and Filly/Mares events select all those who have not placed (or won) in the past three starts. Any spells, which are usually designated by "X" or "-" are to be treated like they are not in the formguide. ie 2749 or 7X49 are both non-placed in last three starts. Any horse which has ONE place or win is acceptable as long as the total of the past three placings equals 19 or more. Thus 6199 or 4892 or 4001 or 1019 or 9X82 etc (0 = 10). You'll see that if a horse had TWO placings it's total CANNOT equal 19 or more. I apply this method to races which are for "Non-Metro Winners", "1-Metro Winners" etc as well BUT these races are (relatively) rarer.

Rule 2) Look at the form of the selections. There may be many. Any horse which has been beaten by 10 lengths or more TWICE (or THRICE) in the three last runs is eliminated.

Rule 3) Bet them (all of them) if you can get 20s plus on them (tote or bookies). There may be a number in some races. That's it.

Suggestions: A) If any selection has had a close up (2 lengths or less) finish at long odds (20-1, maybe 16-1) in it's past three you might want to discard it. If a horse has won or just missed at big odds THAT was probably the run this system is meant to pick up. It is rare to see two "major surprise" performances at big odds because these horses are...... yeah, that's right INCONSISTENT.
B) If the horse is dropping 2 or more classes from it's last race you may also wish to discard it. Dropping down and STILL long odds; what gives?

Explanations; 1) If a horse has had no places in three there is hardly a system which will give it a look in. This will also scare a great deal of punters who don't like doing any kind of "form". This is ME too (no form) but I'm NOT frightened away. If a horse has a recent win or place some may look at it but those odds (20+) indicate it's not many. We don't want to be sharing with a crowd.
2) Any horse can have a bad run and be thrashed ONCE due to any number of factors but more than once in three attempts is indicative of a very poor horse OR a very poor trainer. It highlights too, what we want to avoid. This horse is CONSISTENTLY bad!!!
3) We are taking a risk and want to be rewarded. The trainer should've put this horse out for a spell or into easier company (see suggestion B). If he hasn't WHY NOT?? Hmmmm, very "suggestive"

At the beginning this may all take time but here's a shortcut; don't do anything until 5 minutes before the race. Scan down the board and you will see all the 20+ horses, and simultaneously the form-numbers beside them. You only look at THEM in the guide. This will take seconds per race. That's all.


Any questions?





Finally. Betting small may give you courage to watch as several of your selections do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING and will keep you going (ah, I'm not losing much) until the big one arrives. No matter what the level of your bets, STICK WITH IT. Eventually you may like the thought of quinellas or more. Cheers.

PS. if I've upset anyone by bagging ratings, I hope you won't start defending them here in THIS thread. Let's discuss the pros and cons in another. I'm hopeful that this thread will stick to longshots found by not-too complicated means. Thanks heaps, in advance. Cheers AGAIN.

Another of his methods which involved backing the horse of a trainer who had travelled hundreds of kms to the meeting was published recently in an expensive book by T Johns.