For those interested this will probably be the last time I post these results as I don't want this argument to go on forever (don't want to bring it up again). But the results are below for almost a month of testing:

Backing Progressive : $4800.10 PROFIT
Laying Progressive : $-35.70 LOSS

No Banks lost yet.

Looks like this works....

With 1 day to go this month it has made a stupid amount of money. It is up 380%.

Good Luck.

Wesmip,

If your figures are valid then I advise you to take your loss-chasing (aka "progressive") plan and hurl it as far as possible off Bulli Pass - or equivalent.

Then analyse your figures to try and find a filter to get you profitable on favourites at level stakes.

Your experiment suggests that Betfair Markets have a memory about favourites. Leading to overbacking when favourites are running hot, and/or underbacking when they are in a slump.

So something like only backing favourites following n outs will probably be the optimum strategy.

Perhaps Betfair has no memory but the punters do - short term memory.

My studies show when a horror run of outs on favourites occurs, the prices get longer and longer and hence the overlays occur.
Just as when they romp home 50% of the day, they get shorter and shorter as success continues.

Why?

Because either favourite backers are cashed up and think this is the day, or they simply get frightened and back off so they have cash for another day.

Might seem all paranoia and conjecture, but looking at the prices (and I'm talking about heavily fancied horses) the pattern does emerge.

Self doubt, the conspiracy theories, the "perhaps I got it wrong today with the ratings" etc etc, all have an impact on how much is wagered.

As a wagering group, punters have the shortest memories of any group, including bookies

Some of my best days have been where only one favourite gets up for the day (and I bet level stakes) and the overlay goes to 200% plus.

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