"well said joelance. in recent years the wider racing and betting community has taken on the fast food rush-rush mentality of society in general . having been punting for over 30 years i have seen this lead to a sharp growth in an almost keno mentality in the way racing is promoted and hence also a rise in 'get rich sytems' ."


Surely, this is getting back to what punting was all about pre Don Scott?

In the Depression years, when racecourse attendances were at an all time high, few punters were using any methodical approach to their selection and betting methods. That is precisely what racing was all about to most of the public..an enjoyable form of gambling. What the current promotions do is focus on that "luck" factor..and the enjoyment of gambling...

I think this is a good thing, not a bad thing. It helps to spread the money over more runners in a race. Bookies have been long complaining that they often struggle to lay more than a few runners in a race...melb Cup day is about the closest they ever get to what it was like in the "good old days"......with lots of mug money going on all the runners...

No matter how many times I am told that its impossible to win long term because of the Tab and bookie percentages, I just dont buy it. Im not backing all the horses in the race..Im only interested in one runner..and if i think I am getting value I take it. Surely the percentages cannot be working against me in such a scenario..they have to be working for me. Why is it that we tend to begrudge the takeouts so much when every other enterprise has these takeouts going on? The sharemarket is one example...

There is another common myth out there..that all bookies make money over the long term...yes, it was a klicence to print money in days of old, but the reality today is that many lose..its not easy for them either.. They are often just punting on the other side of the fence...I say "Punting" because as I said earlier..they can no longer set a book and expect to lay most of the field....they can usually only work with a few runners...except melb Cup day etc.

One thing I am sure of..with punting..as in many other endeavours, the real way to make money is to not do what most others are doing.....you have to think a little differently ....

I love it that there are programmes out there to crunch TABS with dutch betting methods etc..it has to be good for everyone. I love it that there are now more win pools that I can swim in...and "best fluctuations" etc on offer..

I love it that the TAbs are doing their best to bring back the gambling on to the track....The pleasure punters are a key to profitablility. .

Just my thoughts...enjoyable thread..thanks for all inputs

Well said w924. I agree.

Mentioning Don Scott makes me wonder just how good he would have been nowadays with the amount of info. we have a mouse click away ? I'm not sure of the % of race info available now Don Scott had available in his day, but he was probably winning with up to 50% less than we can access.

Maybe we have so much info. available, it's frying our brains ? It's well know psychology that there is an optimum amount of info for any given situation that the brain can process for a "best" decision. Any more info. and the decisions become progressively worse .

Hi Crash,

Don Scott said he collected too much information (which i agree with). He was trying to be a perfectionist.

Unfortunately in Don Scotts time he had to collect everything manually. Today with computers, its a click of the mouse. In those times Don Scott didnt have to be extremely accurate with his ratings because he had a unique logical way of rating horses with many of his top selections going off at huge odds. His big overlays would recoup large losing runs.

Imagine if Don Scott had never written or told anyone about his methods, we may not have had ratings as we know them today. Then imagine having not told anyone or written any books and that he was now in the information age. He then proceeds to program his methods and refine them. He could sit back and let his computer do the work (historical and future ratings) and just take the massive overlays and make all the money he wants.

I would predict (guess) that had Don Scott not told people about his methods or written any books we would still have ratings today. However, I believe they would be based on time ratings along the lines of the Beyer method (I am assuming that Beyer would of published). Just remember that Rem Plante had a method of comparing horse against horse along weight lines. He published his works prior to Don Scott's books. It wasnt until Don Scott published his books that weight ratings took off in a big way. Don took them to a new level where you no longer had to look for direct or indirect links between horses. He worked out the differences for each class of race and hence his ratings were born.

If only a forumite could come up with a new revolutionary way in the computer age to select horses in a unique way and keep it all to him or herself. As Pittsburg Phil said, "he or she can make all the money they want".

If a forumite comes up with a new revolutionary way to select horses in this forum they'd do well to keep it to themselves. Look at Punter57 and a few others who think outside the square - the doommeisters and cynics give them all sorts of crap. :-)

KV

Joelance and Crash, like Mcain..you've done it again. two excellent posts there .THanks so much for the input..Its so great to be able to communicate with other punters again. punting can be a lonely passion..and I think a forum such as this is a tremendous asset..another advance of technology that our legendary icons did not have at their fingertips.

Don Scott said he collected too much information (which i agree with). He was trying to be a perfectionist.

I dont like brain fry either, and that is why I take someone else's brain fried ratings and then apply the very simple rules I mentioned elswhere on this forum. For other form students, their kicks are derived from doing all the form themselves...and they enjoy this more than the punt itself..

"Mentioning Don Scott makes me wonder just how good he would have been nowadays with the amount of info. we have a mouse click away ? I'm not sure of the % of race info available now Don Scott had available in his day, but he was probably winning with up to 50% less than we can access. "

yes I agree...Today is a quantum leap from the days of Pittsburg Phil and our own Don Scott. As you say,,, we hgave it so easy with all the data on tap..no filing cabintes full of racecards for m for every horse..all hand written...We are so lucky in so many ways. Just think about the videos we have now to actually revsit a race as many times as we like...Too easy!

I have only returned to the punt here in NZ becasue technology allows me to do it. When I first moved here in '92 it was impossible for me continue the way I was. Nz racing sucked as far as I was concerned and the win pools were tiny..no decent ratings services..no bookies..no fixed odds etc and most importantly, no internet or access to form that would allow me to operate in Australia from here. I had to just walk away and decide it was the end of a chapter in my life...

It really is amazing how far things have moved.
"I would predict (guess) that had Don Scott not told people about his methods or written any books we would still have ratings today."

yes I think we would have it too..would have possibly arrived from overseas, but I think it would still be weight ratings..

Don Scotts book allowed anyone to very closely duplicate what he did and I know of one ratings man/bookmaker who did exactly that.he came in with no knowledge of racing whatsoever and had never bet in his life.

Rem Plante is another Australian who has been a huge contributor to Australian racing. No question. Those still finsh photos were so precious in the days before videos..

Weight is the criteria by which the horses are handicapped...and Ive never been a big fan of race times..Im not knocking time ratings..i just dont have a successful way of using them. Weight ratings arent perfect by any means...I loved the comment that someone posted here about the horse dropping 2kgs just prior to race merely because it had a bowel movement...lol

Anyone using my longshot method yesterday had just the one bet in Sydney using the victab ratings and the nsw tab win pools... Foxy Tyra which led all the way and won at $13.06 IASbet. It only qualified in the Q plan so went around for me with just the one unit..
Unusual to have just the one bet in Sydney on a Saturday but thats all it could come up with..

In melb Final Express was the winner , and it came up using either The tab vic ratings or the qld tab ratings..take your pick..
Thought Id start monitoring the QLD tab ratings to see how they fared. QLD ratings selections were:
QLD Cold Start x1 Won 11.20
laras Way x 4

Syd: hes so canny x2
Zingam X2

melb Future analysis x1
Speedy rossa x4 (2nd) paying as much as 8.00 place
Final Express x1 Won 8.10 nsw tab 8.55 iasbet
Free at last x 4

Ive been using the Melb tab ratings so my actual bets were a little different..(Final Express being the only selection which came up in both ratings.)
I did snare a winner in Syd and Vic. but Qld is still in drought..(Might be much better using the qld tab ratings there, esp as Coldstart duly lobbed)

I also had Caprizzi Strip which paid $7 plus for a place..not much use for me as I only win bet..but results like that do show me that my methods are reasonably consistent and the horses are giving me a good sight for the money...