I have been wondering for some time exactly how the major players construct their initial market.
I know many of the smaller players either copy the big boys when it comes to opening prices and/or the tote with a little percentage difference, but the big boys frame their own markets.

What criteria do they use exactly?
Is it ratings?
Own assessments?

I'd be interested to hear from any ex bookies or pencillers who have knowledge of exactly how it's done.
Do they just pay for ratings and frame a market from there, or do they actually sit down and spend hours on each race working their own ratings etc?

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Hi Chrome Prince,

Most bookies use a price assessor who provides them with suggested markets for each race. Vince Aspinall and Mark Labourne are two of the better known ones. Some bookies also employ their own.

Bookies take these prices which are usually set to an SP market % and do their own fine tuning, which includes drastically increasing the market % in order to set opening prices.

Of course the tote also plays a role. Many of the largest betting syndicates in Australia are tote players and a common strategy they employ is to put the money on early, which see's the horse open at a ridiculous price on the tote. The logic is that if the horse is already short on the tote, the general public will back around it. The end result is that the horse gets out on the tote in the final stages to a fair price or better price than they would otherwise obtain (due to support for other runners). If they waited until late and then put the money on they would end up with a much shorter dividend as a lot of additional public money would follow them.

Bookies obviously know this strategy and they don't unnecessarily offer opening prices much in excess of the tote. Firstly because they would fear copping some large wager and secondly, why would you offer a much better price than your main competition?

Despite what most people think, ratings aren't really a prime factor used in determining market pricesby price assessors. In summary, price assessment is done by analysis of the horses previous starting prices and its performance, adjusted for changes in class and other relevant conditions in today's race.

The previous starting price of a horse is a pretty good predictor of its starting price and therefore winning chance in the current race (when adjusted for obvious class changes).

Hope this helps :smile:

Hi OSULLDJ.
No truer word has been spoken than your comment about big syndicates manipulating the market.
In Sydney we have a person for whom the commission room at Randwick is open daily for HIM,his employees and bank of computers.
His turnover daily is something we all only dream of,and obviously the TAB love it.
This is fine good luck to him, what I object to is he is allowed ....EDITED....


Cheers

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2003-10-13 18:44 ]

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2003-10-13 22:54 ]

Kenchar,
A couple of years ago a friend of mine had $5 on a horse and the ticket came up $305. He nearly dropped dead and told the operator to cancel the bet. There were no obvious marks were on the ticket, only $5, the race started. The operator rang the UNI tab hotline but they said the bet stands and no cancellation.The horse won at $10 and my mate didn't want to accept the additional money as his bet was $5.The operator said he must accept the money as the bet was on in full.I wonder what would have happened if the horse lost .I doubt if you could be forced to pay up.Most times bets are easily cancelled but not always by this event.

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2003-10-13 22:47 ]

You dont get the point, DEPENDS WHO YOU ARE.
I know for a fact He is there everyday as I have never been to the Randwick betting auditorium and not seen Him and His team and bank of computers in their little room.(With refreshments whenever they want for free.Lunch is usually chicken or salmon salad etc.) This I know as when I was full time punting years ago I used to use the commission room.
I had an account using a key card. I would get there before the start of the races and an operator was assigned to me.
My key card went in the machine and NEVER came out until I finished betting.
NO other person was allowed to bet with that operator.
If you are a big punter believe me the tabs treat you like a king.
EDITED
The more we all realise this business is about money and nothing else the more what I am saying makes sense.
The person I am talking about makes a miniscule amount on turnover but when you turn over what he does it is a monumental profit per annum.

Cheers :wink:

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2003-10-13 22:50 ]

What a fasinating post! You guys are very well informed and experienced. I for one appreciate your insite, cheers...

This Forum is not prepared to publish accusations and hearsay of illegal conduct in any thread.

Thanks for the input all.

On the issue of price assessors, I guess we're left in the dark as to what their initial basis is.

Hi CP,
Sorry my outburst was not what you were asking for on this thread but osulldjs comment on big syndicates was like a red flag to a bull to me.
In regards to your original question,the only thing Ive noticed at the track is when they are setting their market a lot of them use the SAME printout, from whoever.

Cheers

Hi Kenchar,

I got the drift of what you were on about and agree.

As a regular track goer...any chance you can get your hands on a copy of the printout? :lol:

I realise that you probably can't but this has fascinated me for some time and would love to get a copy or at least find out where it comes from.

I have a feeling that if I were able to obtain a copy, it would be a pot of gold for identifying stuff they've left out rather than what they've included!

__________________
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Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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