I have few times tried to explain what I do, but it is very hard to do so.
Here is a classic example of what I look for.
This is my one and only bet for the day.

Wagga R2

Bookie sites had Instructed as the fav and it remained the fav throughout the betting, at around $3.5
My Marwina was the 3rd fav at $4.6, it was $6.0 something on nswtab and $8.0 something on unitab.
Getting around the last 3 mins it came on sky that the only one they???? wanted to back was My Marwina, so what happens all the SHEEP back My Marwina and Instructed blew out.
Instructed went from middle 3's to middle 4's on the tab, My Marwina went from 6's to middle 3's
When I put my bet on as they were going into the barrier Instructed was showing $2.5 for the place.
$3.6 win books and $2.5 place tab,now surely none of you can say that is not good value.
Instucted finished paying $4.6 win and $2.1 place on nswtab, and $3.6 win and $1.5 place on books.
The way I read the race was a reasonable amount of money was put on My Marwina to start the SHEEP following so that Instructed would blow out.
It is worth it for certain people to WASTE money on a horse to let the odds on their selection blow out.
Instructed paid $2.1 so thats $440 for the day.
This is the way I try to read odds, it doesn't always work BUT I will guarantee I
have LESS losing days than having a 10 year database and or doing the form everyday.

Cheers

Good call Kenchar. :smile:

Yes, your ideas are highly appreciated --- by many, not just me, I'm sure.

Thanks Guys much appreciated.

The strange thing about all this is if someone asked me in a couple of days time who was my winning bet today my answer would probably be " stuffed if I know ".

That's what I love about what I do, no crap, no study etc.

Since the race I have mowed the lawns, cleaned the pool, and I am just sipping ( guzzling) on my first Chardonnay. :grin:

Kenchar i know you don't know who won in a few days time...but will you record the bet so you know what you won

YUP

Actually Shaun I have been meaning to Email you.

Remember all the things We discussed about form, ratings on unitab etc trying to find the grail, well one day I just thought to myself go back to what I did years ago, no form, don't wanna know their name, don't care if they got 3 or 5 legs, (depending on the sex) :smile: Just joking, but honestly since I forgot all the usual crap which has been bandied around for eternity I have never been happier.

It really isn't that hard, you just have to be a bit street wise ( in relation to racing ).
The biggest problem with what I do is the boredom waiting for something to show up.

I ALWAYS remember what a very succesfull person said to me many many years ago.

THE AVERAGE PERSON IS TOO OCCUPIED WORKING FOR A LIVING TO EARN MONEY TO SEE THE OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE MONEY.

That has stuck in my mind all my life.



I really think what I am trying to get across to you lot out there, is that IT CAN BE DONE.

JUST LOOK OUTSIDE THE CIRCLE THAT HAS BEEN AROUND FOR A 100 YEARS



[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-10-28 19:24 ]

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-10-28 19:26 ]

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-11-02 20:12 ]

Good post Kenchar, the numbers don't lie :smile:

A.

This is a great post Kenchar, just the sort of insight I read this forum to see. I do take a little umbrage with your last paragraph however.

Quote:
"This is the way I try to read odds, it doesn't always work BUT I will guarantee I
have LESS losing days than having a 10 year database and or doing the form everyday."

As a man who loves his (unfortunately limited) database the jist of your story pointed to the sheep following the betting moves. I would hope the database users and form students would have made their selections on the merits of the horses not last minute plunges.

For racing pleasure it's not the size of your database that counts it's the way that you use it. :smile:

KV

What kenchar means..is that the form and the way most people select horses has been over done...everyone has different ways they pick thier horses but basicly they are all very similar....Kenchar has been there and done that...he know has a different approach of trying to read a race by the way the bets are placed...he doesn't just use the tab as that can be misleading but takes his information from many places....this has been working for him very well....is he doing this wrong...no...just different and if it works good on him for trying it....he bets for the place by the way and if i am not mistaked gets fixed prices this can be handy when place betting.....if you look at the past greats of the betting ring they all had one thing in common they had thier own ideas of how to bet...not just follow the rest....just because it is not the norm does not make it wrong....with the varied types of betting today and the options you have to place your bet where you want there is no reason why a new way to win can't be found (or should i say has been found) but is not widely used because people don't understand it....good luck to anyone that can win constantly i just hope it does not become like the race form of today in ten years time

I am definitely going to have to take another look at this after the day I had. Seriously, I can't believe how many 2nds I had today and most of them were at reasonable place divs of $1.60, $1.70, $1.80. Kenchar, have you changed the way you actually get your selection though? I think you used to go for 3rd or 4th favourite in the early betting markets, didn't you??? Is it at all possible to do anything with pre-post markets for this idea? I note that Instructed was 4th favourite in the paper I have.