I wonder how they are calculated? Obviously it is more than just a computer ratings program as they rate horses having their first start. As an example yesterday, Ballarat R2 # 4 PRIVATELY. Top in the Pre-post and the fixed odds market had it around $1.40 as well.

It appears they have some inside knowledge! Maybe its barrier trials?

At the time they calculate the Pre-Post I would not have through sufficient money would have been invested to make that judgement as in this case we are talking about a maiden in Ballarat!

As we cannot rate those horses, we bypass any race which has a horse having its 1st start; but maybe we are missing something.

Any thoughts? ... Fred

Depends what sort of punter you are.

A form punter would not touch any race that has not had 2 or more starts for the whole field.

A stats punter may have had a go at it because Favs with zero starts have the highest SR of all Favs approx 33%.

Maybe the connections loaded it up because of its impressive track work & the trainers reputation.

Its a race I would stay right away from, anything could & does happen.
Its a type of race where many outsiders have been seen to win.
Just go over some past history on races where some or the horses in the field, have not had 2+ career starts, to see some examples.

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what is the relationship with the strike rate and the fav's odds.
Fav @ $1.10 3 wins 5 races 60%
Fav @ $1.20 18 wins 22 races 81.81%
Fav @ $1.30 92 wins 117 races 78.63%
Fav @ $1.40 171 wins 256 races 66.79%
Fav @ $1.50 247 wins 412 races 59.95%
Fav @ $1.60 376 wins 661 races 56.88%
Fav @ $1.70 433 wins 861 races 50.29%
Fav @ $1.80 596 wins 1143 races 52.14%
Fav @ $1.90 568 wins 1240 races 45.80%
Fav @ $2.00 540 wins 1294 races 41.73%

This is all tracks, races distances etc over 43691 races. That means that if this representative sample 36+% being maidens etc were filtered out of the equation then the above percentages would have to increase. Maybe enough to actually be in profit. Could somebody please check?
Beton

I tracked the 1st 5 favs over the past few weeks and if you choose 1 of those favs and only bet maidens only, a good profit was returned. A staking plan could make that even better.

Mind you, I classed a "maiden" race as any race where at least 1 horse has blank recent starts or a race where a number of horse had only 1 recent start.

As a noob, this could be the wrong definition of a maiden race!

[QUOTE=beton]what is the relationship with the strike rate and the fav's odds.
Fav @ $1.10 3 wins 5 races 60%
Fav @ $1.20 18 wins 22 races 81.81%
Fav @ $1.30 92 wins 117 races 78.63%
Fav @ $1.40 171 wins 256 races 66.79%
Fav @ $1.50 247 wins 412 races 59.95%
Fav @ $1.60 376 wins 661 races 56.88%
Fav @ $1.70 433 wins 861 races 50.29%
Fav @ $1.80 596 wins 1143 races 52.14%
Fav @ $1.90 568 wins 1240 races 45.80%
Fav @ $2.00 540 wins 1294 races 41.73%

Beton, ?sorry ran out of editing time there, just was asking was this SP or Tote

tote

Let's look at the second fav
Fav @ $1.10 3 wins 5 races 60% 2fav 1 win 20%
Fav @ $1.20 18 wins 22 races 81.81% 2fav 2 win 9.1%
Fav @ $1.30 92 wins 117 races 78.63% 2fav 11 win 9.4%

Fav @ $1.40 171 wins 256 races 66.79% 2fav 36 win 14%

Fav @ $1.50 247 wins 412 races 59.95% 2fav 56 win 13.6%

Fav @ $1.60 376 wins 661 races 56.88% 2fav 97 win 14.67%

Fav @ $1.70 433 wins 861 races 50.29% 2fav 162 win 18.82%

Fav @ $1.80 596 wins 1143 races 52.14% 2fav 199 win 17.41%

Fav @ $1.90 568 wins 1240 races 45.80% 2fav 238 win 19.19%

Fav @ $2.00 540 wins 1294 races 41.73% 2fav 253 win 19.55%.

The above is a total of 6011 races or 13.75% of races where the Fav is less than even money. 1st and 2nd getting between 60% and 90% of wins.

My data base which was given to me, can filter out track conditions weather, distance,and field size. All relate to the fav and the fav's odds and the finishing order based on fav ranking. Unfortunately I cannot sort or filter by race type or quality as they were not in the original criteria.

This is definately a filter at = or <$1.50