I've been reading a book called "Watching Racehorses - a guide to betting on behaviour" by Geoffrey Hutson. This fella throws the form book pretty well completely out of the window and just looks at the horses to see how they are behaving in the birdcage, in the ring, in the yard and on the way to the start in order to decide who to bet on.
Your first thought might be that he must be a crank (or not) but he has done a very scientific study, crunched the numbers with a statistics program in a computer, etc, etc, and come up with some very interesting results.
He has about 60 points that he looks for in the horse from whether it is pawing the ground, the angle of it's head, if it's ears are flicking, etc, and other points such as if the horse needs two strappers, if the horse has a dump or walks sideways.
Early in his study he found that he couldn't really predict winners by his method but he had measurable success in picking losers. Basically, if the horse hasn't got it's mind on the job or looks to be carrying an injury or has had too much racing and ins't keen to run again, it ain't going to win.
I can't do it justice here but a few of the major pointers are bandages are bad - horses win much less often carrying bandages, a crossover noseband is bad. Kicking, weaving, fighting the bit, etc, all bad signs, arriving late and overweight jockey are statistically bad also.

The book is well written with digressions into such things as the dangers involved when men vaccuum in the nude, the detection of horses who are performing clitoral winking (very bad sign - she just hasn't got her mind on racing) among some very helpful hints for those of us who go to the track.
His most successful races are 2YO fillies races, mares races and restricted races so that would give a lot of us a bet in races we usually avoid.

Give it a read, it's a whole new perspective.

KV

LOL overweight jockeys are bad?!?! Surely not! How about drunk ones? How about ones who five minutes before the race have received an envelope full of cash??

Ooh, ooh, I know!! How about horses who have an erection? I part own a colt who wouldn't load in a mixed trial because he had an erection behind the stalls and was "spraying" the fillies!!!! Is that a good sign??

Looks very interesting KennyVictor. Lots of photographs, figures & tables. Based on observation of over 10,000 horses. Love the claim that by simply betting on favourites with perfect behavioural handicaps it is possible for a casual racegoer to turn a normal 5% loss into a 10% profit.

__________________
Ta me go maith

KennyVictor,that is the funniest thing I've read all season.You reduced me to rubble....tears of laughter as well.Guess really what Hutson is confirming the common sense things do matter....routine is paramount to success and any variation is to be viewed with shrewd scepticism.I think the key phase that we want is "controlled aggression".I like my mules calm in the ring but starting to fizz up as they enter the barrier....that is mentally alert.There,that's a system.
P.S.um..men vaccuming in the nude....very funny....never done it myself....is there a racing system in there somewhere?

To be honest if you know how to do it then that is the best way to pick your horses....my misses has been around horses and i hate it when she decides sje wants a bet when they have them on TV she just looks at the horses in the parade ring and says "Oh i like that one he is a pretty horse or that one looks really nice with a nice coat" and i tell you what she is never far wrong...been trying to get her to the track for years but she doesn't like to bet....gees wish i could be like that and just look at a horse and decide.

Does she vacuum in the nude?

Hi KV,
I know a punter in Perth who follows this method very closely and is very successful. Whenever I get to the track, I enjoy nothing better than discussing the nuisances of this type of selection method with him.

One area that I always have concern with is, when the clerk takes hold of mounts on the way to the barrrier. I have always seen this as a negative and tend to leave these runners alone. Would be interested in others thoughts on this.

Regards, Gary

What about horses that undergo vet's inspections at the barrier and are passed fit to race? Have you ever seen one of them actually go on and win. It's probably happened once or twice, but I tell you if I've already placed my bet on one of these horses, I pretty much give up any hope of it winning. One of the reasons why I prefer to wait till the very last minute to place my bets.

As for looking at the horses, I must admit that I have no idea. I could tell if a horse is fat, but that's about it. Apart from that they all look basically the same to me.

Did you mean "nuances"? instead of "nuisances"? Just a thought, not trying to be a smarta... Does not pay to be one on this forum.
Cheers.