Is there something physiological or psychological about each horse that influences how it performs in its first up run of a campaign?

Or would first up stats be more correctly attributed to trainers? (i.e. it's their practice to start a horse "early" to complete their prep, or nudge their rating downwards, etc; or hold back a runner until it's in the right shape to contest for prizemoney straight away)

Anyone have any anecdotal stories or, better yet, stats regarding horses that maintained their 1st/2nd up characteristics despite moving between trainers who had different practices?

There is no short answer for this walkermac.

It depends on the age of a horse.
If it's a sprinter, middle distance or staying type.
Whether the trainer has his own private training facility where he can trial and race his horses in private, along with the general slow and fast work.
Some trainers have high hopes for certain horses, so put them in races to sharpen them up, others set them up for a first up win, as they race well fresh.
Also injury prone horses will often be set for a first up win and then have a long break and go for a crack again.

Older horses generally take longer to get fit and hit peak fitness.

Problem is, there are exceptions to the rules.

Sorry I can't shed more light on it, but this has been my experience from working with strappers and trainers.

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Hi walkermac

In addition to the points raised by CP you could have a look at something I wrote some time ago in a post relating to first up runners.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=26542

Also there are a number of podcasts that I have done with RSN Radio that touch on the subject that can be found on our website.

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Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
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1st up, came 4th, then the next race SP 15/1 or less, ~ 10/1 or less
usually places 2nd or 3rd, maybe even 1st at around 1600M race ?
If it drifts out past 15/1, forget it.

If someone can do a database on those please.

I was watching Sky and from the Mounting Yard they were dismissing runners due to state of their coat; that they weren't quiet "ready". It occurred to me that the horses don't enter themselves in a race, circle a day on their calendar and make sure that they're in shape in time. The first up stat in the formguide seems to imply that they do.

I do suppose the stat is as revealing as others, like their career place rate; for example. That is: not very - without taking into account the likelihood of success in each of those races.

While there's scope for individual horses to be managed differently, I imagine that trainers would shy from re-inventing the wheel (and likely the more successful, the more reluctant). The linked thread seems to point pretty clearly that trainer-specific, rather than horse-specific, first up stats are a better indicator.

Maybe I had it backwards, but with a bit of experience reading the market movers, in's or outs one gets a "feel" at certain times.

VR-1-Swan Hill, 1200M

TAB 9, @ 9 Minutes to start, Fixed odds on Tatts, $13.00, it drifted out to
19.00
And thats what happens, it gets "lost" in all the hype after around 6 Minutes before start of race.

LS3
74x

Won.
9: paid:$19.30
$2.90

Comes 4th, then spells, then Wins 1stup
or Spells, comes 4th 1st up then wins or places ( E/W Bet)
the one to watch.

To me it says, it came 7th, then 4th, so it may have improved, they spelled it, then it wins 1st up from a spell and pays OK.

Nice !

Interesting.... There may be something that deserves further investigation regarding the place prior to the spell.

There were 33 horses resuming Tuesday (definition used: more than 60 days since their last). 17 were maidens. Of those, there were 4 that finished top 4 in the race immediately preceding their spell. All placed: 1 first (the $19 shot you mentioned), 2 seconds and a third.

Four horses demonstrated the improving fashion you noted pre-spell: 1 win, 1 third, a 9th and a 10th. The two placegetters had Unitab ratings that put them in the top half of the field; the other two, the lower half.

Lastly, the "ones to watch" - per your suggestion - with a 4th placing after a spell, are Steakandbearnaise and Space Invader (both of which are 1 from 1 2nd up, funnily enough; though they *were* also 1 from 1 first up until today! )

You need to take what they say on these programs and take it with a grain of salt. Many of them are ex jockeys or simply broadcasters.
They mention the state of the coat, showing a bit of rib, on his toes, etc etc.

Some horses may be fit, but take longer for their coat to come through.
Some trainers feed hard boiled eggs to their horses and the coat comes out shiny, others don't believe in it.

Some horses are light doers and showing rib means they are overdone and not fed enough, so are likely to not do so well. Others are heavy doers and a bit of rib shows they are fit as they can be.

Some horses on their toes are purely nervous types which expend all their energy before the race. Others on their toes are rearing to go.

What I'm getting at, is one really should study the actual horse and get an idea of the trainers methods, and the horse.

Jockeys are notoriously bad tipsters, as are many broadcasters (overall).
They overlook what the trainer has in mind and the physiology of the actual horse.
Sweeping statements, do not help punters.

I know of at least two professional punters, that follow horses from particular stables, the formguide means nothing, they turn up for trackwork, they talk to the strappers and foreman, they watch intently as the horse does it's work and they get to know everything they can about the whole operation.

I remember going to Moonee Valley race club on a business matter and meeting with an un named trainer, who told me about the best horse he had in his stable, but that she had dicky legs, and would always have problems and never reach her full potential. Punters didn't know this. She had a few placings after that date, but never won another race before retirement.

One needs to be aware of the trainers that always talk up their horses, it's their job to do so, so often the stablehands and track riders are the best sources of information. Other trainers work the media, but one on one will tell you what's what, if they get to know you and think you're not just wasting their time.

These are things people don't take into account when looking at the formguide.

You can only work with what you have, but some guys out there go the extra mile and put in as much work as a strapper does.
These guys have a far bigger edge, than the rest of us overall.

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Beware not to make it too "rule-ish" or mechnical or systemmetised, these things don't "feel".

Ask,
Why did it come 4th then spelled, why was it spelled, why did it come 4th after the spell and was it an improver or does it have potential?

Consider further on-the-day analysis by watching prices, pre-posts etc.

At times nothing seems to happen.
To borrow that cliche, "nothing is a certainty".
If nothing is a certainty, I don't "get" an why E/W bet is 50/50.
More to the tune 75/25 - 60/40 the lesser on the Win accordingly.

I hope you had the same feel regarding Who You Know in Race 2 at Balaklava.

Form was 543x. Price opened at 12 and blew out to 21. Very similar to your selection of yesterday...

I considered it, but was dissuaded by there being 7 debutantes in a large field of 16.