Go to racingandsports - Don Scott ratings.

Mark down those horses asessed at odds on.

Todays price must be $2 or better.

Required time for this = 5 minutes.

I would apply this to Good tracks only.

Sunday 30/1/2011

Parkes
R1 H 1
R2 H 2
R 6 H 2

Devenport
R 4 H 10
R 8 H 6

Port Lincoln
R 1 H 2
R 3 H 4
R 7 H 6

10 Horse race after scratchings only.

Top 4 X 6 X 6

Cessknock Good TC )
Race 7 H 11

Stawell (Dead TC)
Race 1 H 7
Race 2 H 1
Race 3 H 6
Race 6 H 12
Race 8 H 9

All at $2 Minimum

Cheers
darky

darky,

I like your style and thinking. This post won't be noticed by many as it doesn't contain the big winners but I believe your system contains the most important aspects of being a winner.

1. You are using a tried and tested rating system (don scott's) to come up with logical horse selections.

2. You are finding selections that have a very good chance of winning. Odds on don scott ratings have a very good strike rate.

3. You are looking for value. (Must be higher then rated odds at $2 minimum)


That is all that is needed to grind out a profit. The one thing your missing though is numbers to back you up. So here you go:

For $1.99 and less don scott rating before scratchings and starting at $2 or higher :

486 selections for betfair return of $487 - $517

I think your a little too loose in your selections and I would propose you tighten up frm a 50% expectd win rate to those with better then a 66% chance of winning. This would be 1.50 or less :

202 selectons for a betfair return of $248 - $264

To the lurkers : Of course I could point you to the best exact cutoff but you need to work something out for yourself. BTW $1.50 is not the best cut off point. I'll tell you this though, the right cutoff produces a 66% profit and a 30% profit on tote figures.

Darky, I'll send you an email with the right cutoff point.

Good Luck.

darky,

couldn't find your email. email me psmiffy79@aol.com

Hi wesmip1,

If you don't mind, I'd also love to know the best cutoff, as it's an angle that has intrigued me for some time.

I'll email you also if that's ok?

The Schmile

Yes i have sometimes backed D Scott horses rated less than even money and paying overs . Thank you Wespmi for your analysis, not only of this system but the many other assessments you make on this site..Can you give any insight as to the return difference between maiden races and others rated less than even money and less than 1.5. Cheers

Hi Darky,

Thanks for your ideas

Trouble is when do you take your picks? If you go to Don Scott's Sunday market now you will notice the prices are totally different to when you picked them. Looking at Port Lincoln race 3 your pick, H 4, was odds on. However, looking at the market today your pick shows a dividend of $7.50 and H 5 is showing as odds on at $1.50. That is only one example. Most odds have changed to when you picked them.


Can anyone tell me, if the picks are taken immediately after scratchings do the prices remain the same or does Racing & Sports change them again after the race has run?

Cheers,
Bernie

Yes bernie the DS Ratings are ammended after the race results are known to reflect the horses performance. This to me is a total waste of effort and serves to confuse anyone trying to do research on their site. Toe tall whank if u ask me!

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"