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  #11  
Old 19th November 2017, 11:51 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
nah, that can't happen as it would be a "skip" race, so it's always 2 individual nags.
And UB, what I was attempting to do (though I now see is probably impossible) was this:

Possible scenarios
(1) System 1 the nag loses but system 2 the nag wins (what %)

(2)System2 loses but system 1 wins (what %)

(3) Both system horses lose (what %)

Given that system 1 has 70% losing S/R (overall)
and system 2 has 95% losing S/R (overall)



Ok so over 1000 races you will win on both selections roughly 65% which is 650 races(being a successful lay). You will lose at least 1 of the selecitons approx 350 races broken down into losing about 300 races and system 2 losing about 50 races.

But each individual race will have a different percentage. It could be much higher or much lower depending on the odds of the horses.

Always assume the odds are close to the real chance of the horses winning as the crowd is a better predictor on average then anyone else(including experts). You may be better then the crowd on one particular race but over all races they are much much better then any of us.
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  #12  
Old 19th November 2017, 02:24 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
nah, that can't happen as it would be a "skip" race, so it's always 2 individual nags.


Why would you skip it?
Given earlier you said your pick could be 1-2, I know that would also be your 70% lay.
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  #13  
Old 19th November 2017, 07:43 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Mark, yes are right of course, the mental block I have still is with my 95% system the accidents are nearly always the shorties but I accept what you are saying.
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