With the help of Gungadin running the favourite's finishes for ea SP and comparing the next 5 favourites strike rates we now have a matrix of how the horses performed against the favourite. Below $2 the fav had up to 82% win in 22 races at @$1.20 From $2 to $5 and beyond there was a consistant slide from 42% to 15.3%. The band of 2nd to 6th favs stayed consistant just moving from a total of 51.6% out to a total of 60.8%. Still backing all produces a loss no matter which way we did it.

What we can take from this is <$2 100% to 93.3% strike rate
From $2 to $5 FavSP 93.3% to 75.1% strike rate
for first six favourites.

Maybe somebody has a new slant on this.
Thanks Gungdin for your input
Regards Beton

Attached Files

average matrix 2.doc (19.0 KB, 619 views)

Yes, you are on the right track, just utilise the best odds offered by the internet bookies and you may show a positive POT.
Yes, a lot of work ....but isn't that what's it's all about?.....
Like in business, nothing comes easy...

Cheers.

I think it is more a case sorting out which races not to bet on. The outback tracks like Kalgoolie, Darwin etc where a small catchment of horses have already highlighted the local favourites etc. Its a case of trying to find the bias on each track in each size of field for each distance. ie some tracks the favourites get up more than others. the favourite when<$2 win more often in small fields in sprints. I saw a site from UK that had the bias of barrier draws for the various field sizes and distances for most tracks in the UK. When you see the results of that analysis the only conclusion is that barrier does matter. They went on to say that some trainers put their horses in and then scratch if they get a bad draw.
Once we know where not to bet then use the SP and shop around for the best price.

Regards Beton