To see if a system has any legs , it is recommended to create your system from 200 bets.
Then test your system over another 2 lots of 100 unseen data bets.

If a big whole appears where the wheels feel off , then its back to the drawing board.
That is the frustrating bit.

__________________
Cheers.

Yeah, you're not wrong.

Bhagwan, what if a system doesn't have a lot of bets? Should you still go through the same number of results as a system that produces a lot more selections?

Hi Sportz,

clearly, the more bets that you can test over the better. I have a rule of thumb that with 2 years of data, I want at least 100 bets, preferably 200 bets. Anything less than 100 bets is far too susceptible to a few good results swaying the data.

I also do things a little differently than Bhagwan... I simply test over all my data, then graph the results and do a month-by-month analysis (I wrote a nice piece of software to analyse the CSV file for PPP). I can then check to see if the system goes through big swings, where the profit and strike rate comes from, etc... I once had what looked to be a fantastic longshot system, except when I analysed the results all the profit came from one 3 week period... It got 7 / 8 over three weeks all paying $25 or better, including 2 trifectas on the one day totalling $10,000... take that three week period out of it and it was a loser :sad:

Cheers,
Chris.

Some of you battle-scared ole war-horses run ya eye over this system an tell me what ya think.
Distance. 1100-1800.
field. 1-24.
Day. 7.
Venue. SMBW.
Track. G.
Age. 2-3.
Win % 20-100.
Career 0-15.
Weight. 52-58.
Days. 1 21.
This Prep. 1-3.
LSFP. 1-1
LS SP. 0.0-5.0
Dist. +400-200.
Wt. change. -4.0 +2.5
Win this C. Y.
Winning fiorm. Y.

My data is only just reasonable and goes back to April 2002 but shows positive POT for WIN.PLACE.QUIN.EX.TRI and FF. Figures look good till then.

Squirter.

Hi Squirty,

Results by year for past 3 years .. regards.

Year:2001 results:

Meetings considered : 248
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 19.5%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 55.8%
Average Win Dividend : $2.94

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 66 65 66 66 66 18
Races Won : 15 38 26 11 8 3
S.R./Race : 22.7% 58.5% 39.4% 16.7% 12.1% 16.7%
Outlay ($): 77.00 76.00 379.00 388.00 1582.00 1488.00
RETURN : 44.10 55.72 228.50 137.00 655.30 187.60
$ Profit : -32.90 -20.28 -150.50 -251.00 -926.70 -1300.40
% P.O.T. : -42.7% -26.7% -39.7% -64.7% -58.6% -87.4%

Test Duration = 00:00:24

Year: 2002 Results:

Meetings considered : 260
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 37.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 56.7%
Average Win Dividend : $3.44

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 61 61 61 61 61 41
Races Won : 25 36 26 22 16 7
S.R./Race : 41.0% 59.0% 42.6% 36.1% 26.2% 17.1%
Outlay ($): 67.00 67.00 334.00 338.00 1372.00 2964.00
RETURN : 86.10 67.36 349.80 452.30 2196.60 1752.20
$ Profit : 19.10 0.36 15.80 114.30 824.60 -1211.80
% P.O.T. : 28.5% 0.5% 4.7% 33.8% 60.1% -40.9%

Test Duration = 00:00:50

Year: 2003 Results:
NOTES: System was in loss most of year, but 2 large payouts in Perth - $22.1 and $13.20
Which I feel has distorted the figures. This also causes the FF EX QA and TF to also distort.

Meetings considered : 270
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 28.9%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 63.9%
Average Win Dividend : $4.36

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 70 70 70 70 70 42
Races Won : 24 48 28 19 14 6
S.R./Race : 34.3% 68.6% 40.0% 27.1% 20.0% 14.3%
Outlay ($): 83.00 83.00 418.00 426.00 1772.00 3384.00
RETURN : 104.70 94.74 495.50 518.80 3603.10 33593.50
$ Profit : 21.70 11.74 77.50 92.80 1831.10 30209.50
% P.O.T. : 26.1% 14.1% 18.5% 21.8% 103.3% 892.7%

Test Duration = 00:00:55

Squirty, I got 101/283 for 52 odd units profit.
However, sensational lately, 17/30 for 31 unit profit and all the remaining 4 years profit in the one $22 winner Doomben referred to.

Here is a system that would meet your requirements....gift from Harvsplace

Let me know what you think..

Race Distance: 1000 - 2250
Race Field Size: 7 - 16
Race Class (avBase): 44 - 99
Max No 1st Uppers: 3
Day of Week: 47
Venue: SMBAW
Track Condition: GDS
Age of Horse: 3 - 6
Horse Win %: 10 - 100
Horse Place %: 33 - 100
Career Starts: 3 - 36
Barrier Position: 1 - 15
TAB Number: 1 - 9
Weight to Carry: 52.0 - 58.0
Days to Last Start: 1 - 21
Days to 2nd Last Start: 17 - 35
Days to 3rd Last Start: 34 - 50
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 7
2nd Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 7
3rd Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 11
4th Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 10
Last Start SP: 0.0 - 10
Max Distance Rise-Drop: 0 - 500
Max LBD Rise-Drop: 0 - 2200
Weight Change Min-Max: -4.0 - 0.0
Won or Okay at Distance:
Metrop Last Start: Y
Av Prizemoney Rank: 1 - 8
Predicted Posn Rank: 1 - 3
Predicted Margin: 0.0 - 4.0


[ This Message was edited by: Harvsplace on 2004-03-08 12:11 ]

Doomben....Tony,

Thanks for that guys.
I played with, and modified it a little and came up with better figures. Figures sofar for 2004 are excellent.
2004. 18--28. +41.6 POT. 1 payout only at $12.40.
2003. 19--52. B. terrible. +6.9 POT. but generally into the negative POT.
2002. 18--34 +78.8 POT.

Your data is probabily more acurate than mine.

Tony, The mod's could even add to your 2004 figures. If you jokers are interested in the additions give us an email.

Squirter. email..squirter@clear.net.nz

DOOMBEN...TONY

2004 POT should read 141.6

Cheers

Squirter.