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  #1  
Old 18th February 2013, 08:40 PM
Raven Raven is offline
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Thumbs up A Little System

Here's a simple little system I follow on Saturdays, just for fun really. If I go to the pub on a Saturday I still like to have some small interest bets during the day, and this one does throw up some nice winners. I don't have results to back this claim up, but I'd reckon this would make a POT by chasing best available price (plenty of options on a Sat).

1/ Sat Metro only
2/ Only consider horses with 1 start for 1 win
3/ Last start was at a non-metro venue
4/ Is not being ridden by a claiming apprentice

Seems fairly logical to me. Horse wins on debut at the provincials, and trainer then takes it straight to town on a Saturday. If the trainer is competent, these horses are good enough to win. Also I consider the use of an apprentice as a negative, as usually the horse is on the limit anyway, so no need to claim.
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  #2  
Old 18th February 2013, 09:22 PM
Vortech
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A little Gem this one.

1285 Bets since 1999 - Return of $1336.50 on NSW tab
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  #3  
Old 18th February 2013, 09:45 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
A little Gem this one.

1285 Bets since 1999 - Return of $1336.50 on NSW tab

Hi Vortech. Is that a profit of $51.50 (3.9% pot) or $1336.50 (104% pot)?

Over 14 years that's 91 bets per year on average (1.75 bets per week).
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  #4  
Old 18th February 2013, 09:54 PM
Vortech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Hi Vortech. Is that a profit of $51.50 (3.9% pot) or $1336.50 (104% pot)?

Over 14 years that's 91 bets per year on average (1.75 bets per week).

3.9% POT - 17.5% Strike Rate @ $6.82 avg div
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  #5  
Old 19th February 2013, 06:48 AM
Vortech
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Also out of interest with this system

Only Melbourne and WA are making profit
Geldings are the only sex that make profit
Generally they are dropping weight from last start. Horses same weight or more are making a loss.
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  #6  
Old 19th February 2013, 09:20 AM
Raven Raven is offline
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Yea Ocho this one ain't gonna make us millionaires But I'm not surprised it makes a small profit. As I say chase BOB when you can, back the roughies at BFSP etc. Being a system though I assume it has the occasional losing year.

Vortech, it might be worthwhile to do an SP analysis. May find something like <$3 not worth bothering with etc.
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  #7  
Old 19th February 2013, 09:27 AM
Raven Raven is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Also out of interest with this system

Only Melbourne and WA are making profit
Geldings are the only sex that make profit
Generally they are dropping weight from last start. Horses same weight or more are making a loss.

I suppose another thing you could look at is whether it works at non-Saturday metro meetings as well. I got a nice winner in Brissy on the weekend with this.
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  #8  
Old 19th February 2013, 10:02 AM
gunny72 gunny72 is offline
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Seems to be a 3yo method. Recent Brisbane examples are Carmora last weekend and Tukiyo on the 19 Jan. good prices too.
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  #9  
Old 19th February 2013, 10:06 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Also out of interest with this system

Only Melbourne and WA are making profit
Geldings are the only sex that make profit
Generally they are dropping weight from last start. Horses same weight or more are making a loss.
Perhaps it's a left handed system.
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  #10  
Old 20th February 2013, 09:02 AM
Vortech
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Nothing wrong with a phil mickelson system!
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